High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene

Carré, Matthieu; Braconnot, Pascale; Elliot, Mary; D’Agostino, Roberta; Schurer, Andrew; Shi, Xiaoxu; Marti, Olivier; Lohmann, Gerrit; Jungclaus, Johann; Cheddadi, Rachid; Carlo, Isma Abdelkader Di; Cardich, Jorge; Ochoa, Diana; Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo; Pérez, Alexander; Romero, Pedro E.; Turcq, Bruno; Corrège, Thierry; Harrison, Sandy P.

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107125

Cited by 31 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 140 publications

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“…The low amplitude variability recorded at El Junco during the mid-Holocene and the abrupt shift to present-day variability at ∼3.5 ka is also similar to the ISM IADV spel record. ISM and SAM IADV spel shows similarities with regional reconstructions of IADV amplitude from the tropical Pacific (Carré et al 2021). The western Pacific shows lower IADV through the early to mid-Holocene, then an abrupt shift to modern levels at ∼2 ka, similar to ISM IADV spel , whilst central Pacific records show a peak in IADV at ∼6 ka, similar to the peak in SAM IADV spel at this time.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

“…However, the hydrogen isotope record from El Junco (Zhang et al 2014), which is interpreted as a record of El Niño amplitude, shows large multi-centennial scale fluctuations in the early to mid-Holocene like those in SAM IADV spel . Indeed, numerous records show fluctuations of a similar nature, including tropical Pacific reconstructions (Carré et al, 2021) and the Lake Pallcacocha records (Moy et al 2002). The low amplitude variability recorded at El Junco during the mid-Holocene and the abrupt shift to present-day variability at ∼3.5 ka is also similar to the ISM IADV spel record.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…The models do not show the large multi-centennial scale fluctuations seen in SAM IADV spel . Comparisons of simulated and reconstructed SST IADV in the tropical Pacific also show that these models exhibit less multi-centennial variability than coral and bivalve records (Carré et al 2021). These discrepancies between simulated and reconstructed IADV, and indeed between different models, strongly suggests that the controls on monsoon precipitation are only indirectly tied to changes in external forcing.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Speleothem records of monsoon interannual-interdecadal variability through the Holocene

Parker¹,

Harrison²,

Braconnot³

2021

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Modern observations show considerable interannual to interdecadal variability in monsoon precipitation. However, there are few reconstructions of variability at this timescale through the Holocene, and there is therefore less understanding of how changes in external forcing might have affected monsoon variability in the past. Here, we reconstruct the evolution of the amplitude of interannual to interdecadal variability (IADV) in the East Asian, Indian and South American monsoon regions through the Holocene using a global network of high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records. We reconstruct changes in IADV for individual speleothem records using the standard deviation of δ18O values in sliding time windows after correcting for the influence of confounding factors such as variable sampling resolution, growth rates and mean climate. We then create composites of IADV changes for each monsoon region. We show that there is an overall increase in δ18O IADV in the Indian monsoon region through the Holocene, with an abrupt change to present-day variability at ~2 ka. In the East Asian monsoon, there is an overall decrease in δ18O IADV through the Holocene, with an abrupt shift also seen at ~2 ka. The South American monsoon is characterised by large multi-centennial shifts in δ18O IADV through the early and mid-Holocene, although there is no overall change in variability across the Holocene. Our regional IADV reconstructions are broadly reproduced by transient climate-model simulations of the last 6 000 years. These analyses indicate that there is no straightforward link between IADV and changes in mean precipitation, or between IADV and orbital forcing, at a regional scale.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 54%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Speleothem records of monsoon interannual-interdecadal variability through the Holocene

Parker¹,

Harrison²,

Braconnot³

2021

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…2, C and D ), suggesting that there may be changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO, consistent with previous modeling work ( 11 ). A recent synthesis of coral and mollusk data from the tropical Pacific tentatively suggests that there may be changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO ( 20 ). However, at present, it is difficult to validate climate-model inferred changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO due to an insufficient amount of proxy data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Niño variability over the Holocene

et al. 2022

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Uncertainty surrounding the future response of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability to anthropogenic warming necessitates the study of past ENSO sensitivity to substantial climate forcings over geological history. Here, we focus on the Holocene epoch and show that ENSO amplitude and frequency intensified over this period, driven by an increase in extreme El Niño events. Our study combines new climate model simulations, advances in coral proxy system modeling, and coral proxy data from the central tropical Pacific. Although the model diverges from the observed coral data regarding the exact magnitude of change, both indicate that modern ENSO variance eclipsed paleo-estimates over the Holocene, albeit against the backdrop of wide-ranging natural variability. Toward further constraining paleo-ENSO, our work underscores the need for multimodel investigations of additional Holocene intervals alongside more coral data from periods with larger climate forcing. Our findings implicate extreme El Niño events as an important rectifier of mean ENSO intensity.

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“…Two versions of the IPSL model, i.e., the low-resolution (1.875° × 3.75°) version of IPSLCM5A-LR and modified and medium-resolution (1.25° × 2.5°) of IPSLCM5A-MR with a new hydrological model, a prognostic snow model, and a dynamical vegetation module, were used to run the transient simulations of the last 6 ka, indicating that different model versions and experimental setups have a larger impact on the mean state of climate, e.g., the drying trend of the Indian and West African summer monsoon rainfall, than on the associated interannual-to-decadal variability and the vegetation-climate interactions (Braconnot et al, 2019a, b;Cré tat et al, 2020). In addition, the four Holocene transient simulations run with MPI-ESM1.2, two versions of the IPSL model, and AWI-ESM2 (1.875° × 1.875°; Sidorenko et al, 2019) were compared to support the orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene (Carré et al, 2021) and highlight the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations when we do multi-model comparisons (Shi et al, 2021).…”

Section: Transient Modelling Of the Holocenementioning

confidence: 99%

Transient climate simulations of the Holocene (version 1) – experimental design and boundary conditions

Tian

Jiang

Zhang

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. The Holocene, started approximately 11.5 thousand years before present (ka), is the latest interglacial period with several rapid climate changes from decades to centuries time scales superimposed on the millennium scale mean climate trend. Climate models provide useful tools to investigate the underlying dynamic mechanisms for the climate change during this well-studied time period. Thanks to the improvements of the climate model and computational power, transient simulation of the Holocene offers an opportunity to investigate the climate evolution in response to time-varying external forcings and feedbacks. Here, we present the design of a new set of transient experiments for the whole Holocene from 11.5 ka to the preindustrial period (1850 CE) (HT-11.5ka) to investigate both combined and separated effects of the main external forcing of orbital insolation, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, and ice sheets on the climate evolution over the Holocene. The HT-11.5ka simulations are performed with a relatively high-resolution version of the comprehensive Earth system model CESM1.2.1 without acceleration, both fully- and singly-forced by time-varying boundary conditions of orbital configurations, atmospheric GHGs, and ice sheets. Preliminary simulation results show a slight decrease of the global annual mean surface air temperature from 11.5 ka to 7.5 ka due to both decreases in orbital insolation and GHG concentrations, with an abrupt cooling at approximate 7.5 ka, which is followed by a continuous warming until the preindustrial period mainly due to increased GHG concentrations. The simulated cooling magnitude at 6 ka lies within the range of the 14 PMIP4 model results and is close to their median result for the mid-Holocene simulations. Further analyses on the HT-11.5ka transient simulation results will be covered by follow-up studies.

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High-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of ENSO amplitude since the mid-Holocene

Cited by 31 publications

References 140 publications

Speleothem records of monsoon interannual-interdecadal variability through the Holocene

Speleothem records of monsoon interannual-interdecadal variability through the Holocene

Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Niño variability over the Holocene

Transient climate simulations of the Holocene (version 1) – experimental design and boundary conditions

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