Historic Grain Sorghum Production, Value, Yield Gap, and Weather Relation Trends

Abstract

There is limited information regarding the grain sorghum production trends from early in the millennium towards the 2020s. The main objective of this study was to quantify the grain sorghum production area, economic value, productivity, annual production variation, relationship with changing weather patterns, and yield gap and to identify future areas of intervention and research. The results indicated that the grain sorghum production area in Kansas has increased in the most recent decade (2010–2022) at an average rate of 8 thousand ha year−1. With the current 1.2 million ha harvest area, Kansas continues to allocate more land area for sorghum than any other state in the USA. The average current annual economic value of sorghum in Kansas is USD 0.5 billion. The average sorghum grain productivity for recent years (2000–2022) was 4.3 Mg ha−1 in Kansas. The year-to-year yield variation in the grain sorghum average for Kansas in the years 1929–1956 was ±0.5 Mg ha−1 but increased to ±2 Mg ha−1 for the years 1957–2022. The results also showed a 66 to 96% yield gap between the actual yield (USDA data) and potential non-irrigated yield (Kansas State Grain Sorghum Hybrid Performance Trial data). There was a significant positive correlation between the July–August precipitation and a significant negative correlation between air temperatures and sorghum yield. We conclude that there was an increasing sorghum harvest area trend in Kansas for the years 2010 to 2022. Further research that identifies more unique and important agronomic and economic advantages of sorghum, increasing productivity per unit area across different environments, communicating existing benefits, and developing crop production management best practices are essential to sustain gains in the production area.