Historical records reveal the distinctive associations of human disturbance and extreme climate change with local extinction of mammals

Abstract

Accelerated anthropogenic impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for unprecedented species extinction. However, determining their effects on extinction is challenging owing to the lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, using historical occurrence records of 11 medium- to large-sized mammal species or groups of species in China from 905 BC to AD 2006, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic stressors (represented by cropland coverage and human population density) and climatic stressors (represented by air temperature) with the local extinction of these mammals. We found that both intensified human disturbances and extreme climate change were associated with the increased local extinction of the study mammals. In the cold phase (the premodern period of China), climate cooling was positively associated with increased local extinction, while in the warm phase (the modern period) global warming was associated with increased local extinction. Interactive effects between human disturbance and temperature change with the local extinction of elephants, rhinos, pandas, and water deer were found. Large-sized mammals, such as elephants, rhinos, and pandas, showed earlier and larger population declines than small-sized ones. The local extinction sensitivities of these mammals to the human population density and standardized temperature were estimated during 1700 to 2000. The quantitative evidence for anthropogenic and climatic associations with mammalian extinction provided insights into the driving processes of species extinction, which has important implications for biodiversity conservation under accelerating global changes.

Long-term effects of cultural filtering on megafauna species distributions across China

“…70; see also SI Appendix, Supplementary text). We analyzed the three rhinoceros species as a single taxon group due to insufficient information in the original historical materials for species-or genus-level identification (70), as done in several recent studies using the distribution data for rhinoceroses in ancient China (17,19,71). For each taxon, the most recent record in the dataset for a prefecture was interpreted as the taxon's last occurrence in that prefecture, with the underlying assumption that the taxon was constantly present there until the last occurrence (18).…”

Current climate, but also long‐term climate changes and human impacts, determine the geographic distribution of European mammal diversity

“…The interaction between increasing human pressure and climate changes during the Late Quaternary led to the extinction of many Holarctic large mammals from particular lineages and with specific traits (e.g. Davis, Faurby, & Svenning, 2018; Lorenzen et al., 2011; Nogués‐Bravo, Rodríguez, Hortal, Batra, & Araújo, 2008; Wan et al., 2019). Indeed, some mammal traits reflect the species’ susceptibility to anthropogenic pressures (Fritz, Bininda‐Emonds, & Purvis, 2009; Wan et al., 2019), so that the current patterns of trait and phylogenetic diversity may have been shaped by non‐random human‐driven extinctions (Faurby & Svenning, 2015).…”

Local Gazetteers Reveal Contrasting Patterns of Historical Distribution Changes between Apex Predators and Mesopredators in Eastern China

“…The reconstruction of distributions using both presence and absence data is more accurate than previous studies with have only used presence data (Fig.7). It overcomes several disadvantages of the latter: (1) how large area does a data point represent is determined by subjectivity of different researchers (Zhou & Zhang 2013;Li et al 2015;Turvey et al 2015;Wan et al 2019;Teng et al 2020), but now it is replaced by objective interpolation;…”

“…Consequently, in view of the complex synergy of both intrinsic species traits and human's role at different spatial-temporal and ecological scales, more specific quantitative assessments of the relationships between local extinction of endangered species and anthropogenic factors are urgently required (Fritz et al 2009;Dirzo et al 2014;Sandom et al 2014;Wan et al 2019;Teng et al 2020).…”