Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden

Abstract

Background and purpose The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand.Patients and methods We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975–2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence.Results We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 105 Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 105 Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281–374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308–441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030.Interpretation Today’s levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed.

Different incidences of knee arthroplasty in the Nordic countries

“…The incidence of knee arthroplasty in females was found to be greater than that in males in our study, but the results of previous studies have also shown that the proportion of female patients has decreased with time (Nemes et al. 2015). Moreover, the sex distribution may also vary between nations (Paxton et al.…”

“…2011, Nemes et al. 2015). One study delivered projections for primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States from 2005 to 2030 (Kurtz et al.…”

“…2010a, Nemes et al. 2015). Both the broadening of indications for younger patients and the increase in total incidence of TKA have raised concerns of a possible increase in revision burden in the long term (Kurtz et al.…”

Risk factors for infection, revision, death, blood transfusion and longer hospital stay 3 months and 1 year after primary total hip or knee arthroplasty

“…Les taux de révision chirurgicale ont été plus élevés chez les patients hypertendus et ceux qui souffraient de G iven the aging population, the incidence and prevalence of osteoarthritis is expected to increase, and consequently the demand for total joint replacement (TJR) continues to rise. 1 In addition, more TJR procedures are being performed in older patients and those with multiple medical comorbidities. 2,3 Such patients are inevitably at a higher risk for serious postoperative complications and may require more rigorous optimization of their medical condition preoperatively and more in-depth discussion when obtaining informed consent.…”

Patients’ Expectations Impact Their Satisfaction following Total Hip or Knee Arthroplasty

“…For instance, in Sweden the estimated number of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) per 100.000 residents aged 40 years and older is 334 for the year 2020, while the projected incidence of TKA, in this community reaches 469 per 100.000 subjects in 2130 [1]. In the UK, the number of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and TKA procedures performed in 2035 is estimated to double compared to the numbers from 2010 [2].…”