Household Incomes and Bank Residential Mortgage in Russia

Abstract

The influence of the incomes of the population subject to changes on bank mortgage lending was investigated using the methods of correlation and regression analysis. Three approaches to income volatility as an indicator of their volatility have been implemented: variability within certain time periods through an assessment of the coefficients of variation during the year, between periods through an assessment of the average annual income growth rates, and the variability of the distribution between income recipients through inequality indicators. According to the research results, indicators of bank residential mortgage are more strongly associated with variations in nominal income than in real one; the low level of overdue mortgage debt in the Russian banking sector is determined by a qualitative assessment of borrowers' capabilities in accordance with their income; an increase in income volatility is accompanied by a decrease in the share of overdue mortgage debt. The stability of the population's income contributes to an increase in the number and total volume of bank residential mortgage. As a result of econometric modeling, the maximum significant effect of the unemployment rate on the share of overdue mortgage debt has been established.