How Corruption Blunts Counternarcotic Policies in Afghanistan: A Multiagent Investigation

Geller, Armando; Rizi, Seyed M. Mussavi; Latek, Maciej

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-19656-0_19

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…CLD is often used in building descriptive representations of a system that can serve as a foundation for further diagnostic, analytic, and prescriptive modeling. This can be done via an analyst or expert driven process, as is typically done in an interagency policy setting (Geller et al., ; Latek et al., ), or by bringing stakeholders together from different segments of society (civil society, academia, business, track one and two, government, and so on) to physically draw how different conditions and factors in communities affect one another in complex ways to affect the dynamics of peace (Ricigliano, ). The latter approach is often used by civil society and grassroots organizations attempting to inform and influence policy processes (Burns, ).…”

Section: Tool 1: Mapping Multiple Causality Of Complex Peace Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taking Complex Systems Seriously: Visualizing and Modeling the Dynamics of Sustainable Peace

2019

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The recent United Nation Secretary General's report on sustaining peace speaks to an urgent crisis of complexity in global affairs, where a wide assortment of nonstate actors wields more political power than ever before. In this context, the international community's traditional ways of forecasting, planning, policymaking, and assessing impact are becoming rapidly obsolete. In response, policymakers are calling for more holistic or systemic approaches to peace and development. Unfortunately, these proposed changes are merely ‘systems light’, essentially a metaphorical characterization of peace systems where their component parts are seen as interconnected and complicated. This form of systems thinking is insufficiently informed by more sophisticated methods from complexity science. This article will illustrate how two methods derived from complexity science, causal loop diagramming and mathematical modeling, can help us understand the properties and dynamics of intervention in complex peace systems. Causal loop diagrams help us to identify the peace factors and the connections between them. Mathematical modeling helps us determine the quantitative results of the interactions between all the peace factors. Using these methods together can lead to new insights for peacebuilding and for mitigating the unintended consequences of well intended policies.

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Section: Tool 1: Mapping Multiple Causality Of Complex Peace Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taking Complex Systems Seriously: Visualizing and Modeling the Dynamics of Sustainable Peace

2019

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“…Again, Schelling's (1971) model is an example here, but more recent ones include Cederman's (1997) model of war and state formation, Bhavnani's (2006) norms model of mass participation in interethnic violence, or Siegel's (2009) model of collective action in social networks. Geller, Rizi and Łatek (2011) use actual data from Afghanistan to validate a computer simulation of the interaction between drug production and corruption. For example, Cederman (2003) shows how a simple model of interstate war generates a power-law distribution of war sizes, similar to what has been observed in reality.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A similar approach was taken by the authors of the "Artificial Anasazi" model (Dean, Gumerman, Epstein, Axtell, Swedlund, Parker and McCarroll, 2006), who managed to reproduce the settlement pattern of an ancient culture in an agentbased model. Geller, Rizi and Łatek (2011) use actual data from Afghanistan to validate a computer simulation of the interaction between drug production and corruption. Despite some promising attempts, the empirical evaluation of computational models is the exception rather than the norm.…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Violence and Ethnic Segregation: A Computational Model Applied to Baghdad

Weidmann

Salehyan

2013

Int Stud Q

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The implementation of the United States military surge in Iraq coincided with a significant reduction in ethnic violence. Two explanations have been proposed for this result: The first is that the troop surge worked by increasing counterinsurgent capacity, whereas the second argument is that ethnic unmixing and the establishment of relatively homogenous enclaves were responsible for declining violence in Baghdad through reducing contact. We address this question using an agent‐based model that is built on GIS‐coded data on violence and ethnic composition in Baghdad. While we cannot fully resolve the debate about the effectiveness of the surge, our model shows that patterns of violence and segregation in Baghdad are consistent with a simple mechanism of ethnically motivated attacks and subsequent migration. Our modeling exercise also informs current debates about the effectiveness of counterinsurgency operations. We implement a simple policing mechanism in our model and show that even small levels of policing can dramatically mitigate subsequent levels of violence. However, our results also show that the timing of these efforts is crucial; early responses to ethnic violence are highly effective, but quickly lose impact as their implementation is delayed.

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The Methodology

2012

Agent‐Based Computational Sociology

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How Corruption Blunts Counternarcotic Policies in Afghanistan: A Multiagent Investigation

Cited by 8 publications

References 2 publications

Taking Complex Systems Seriously: Visualizing and Modeling the Dynamics of Sustainable Peace

Taking Complex Systems Seriously: Visualizing and Modeling the Dynamics of Sustainable Peace

Violence and Ethnic Segregation: A Computational Model Applied to Baghdad

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