How crime affects economic performance: The case of Guatemala

Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz; Ndoma, Ibrahim

doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.09.002

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…However, these results contradict positive association between crime and GDP found by some studies. As per these studies, GDP growth promotes the prosperity so high returns are associated with property crime (Astarita et al, 2018;Detotto and Otranto, 2010;Estrada and Ndoma, 2014;Fisher, 1987;Goulas and Zervoyianni, 2013;Khan et al, 2015).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Profiling Crime in Pakistan: An Aggregated and Disaggregated Socioeconomic Analysis

Anwar¹

2021

Forman J. Econ. Stud.

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Crime is more than just a sociological and psychological phenomenon. The economic effects of any criminal activity are intriguing and vice versa. This paper attempts to profile crime scenario in Pakistan in the socio-economic context at aggregated and disaggregated level. Three crime supply models have been constructed using formal econometric techniques i.e., aggregated crime, crime against person and crime against property. These models depict the various socioeconomic variables effecting different crimes. The paper also captures the deterrence effect but on a very limited scale using police strength as proxy. The paper has drawn many conclusions indicating effects of social and economic injustices making people choose illegal activities over lawful ways of earnings and the role of government to intervene and promote socio-economic equity. Government should introduce effective social security programs to create more jobs and to minimize income inequalities. Policing and effective justice system is key to control crime.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Profiling Crime in Pakistan: An Aggregated and Disaggregated Socioeconomic Analysis

Anwar¹

2021

Forman J. Econ. Stud.

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“…General security is also deemed an “important determinant of welfare” (Fafchamps and Minten, 2009: 831), as insecurity impedes the state's fiscal capacity, investment, competitiveness of firms, income and economic growth and thus general development (Adekoya and Abdul Razak, 2017; Atwood, 2005; Besley and Mueller, 2021; Cárdenas-Santamaría, 2007; Estrada and Ndoma, 2014; Goulas and Zervoyianni, 2013, 2015; Oriakhi and Osemwengie, 2012; Torres-Preciado et al, 2017; World Bank, 2006). With small arms enabling security forces to reduce insecurity, they might contribute to raising economic welfare in the future.…”

Section: Building a Theory Of Small Arms Imports And Conflict Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arming for conflict, arming for peace? How small arms imports affect intrastate conflict risk

Mehltretter

2021

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Although a prevalent technology of conflict, the impact of small arms imports on the risk of intrastate conflict outbreak has not been examined so far. This article argues that small arms not only enhance general military capabilities, but also contribute to state capacities necessary for conflict prevention. These two mechanisms are incorporated in a formal model of power shifts. The derived hypotheses are tested on 146 countries for the period 1993–2014. Using split-population and penalized fixed-effects logit models as innovative estimation methods for rare-events data, small arms imports are found to have no or even a risk-reducing impact.

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“…Providing safety and security to citizens by controlling and preventing crime is crucial for law enforcement agencies. Crime can cause direct or indirect damage to social welfare and can negatively impact the nation’s economy [ 1 , 2 ]. Therefore, countries spend a significant amount of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on law enforcement agencies to control and prevent crime [ 3 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid of deep learning and exponential smoothing for enhancing crime forecasting accuracy

et al. 2022

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The continued urbanization poses several challenges for law enforcement agencies to ensure a safe and secure environment. Countries are spending a substantial amount of their budgets to control and prevent crime. However, limited efforts have been made in the crime prediction area due to the deficiency of spatiotemporal crime data. Several machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis techniques are exploited, but accuracy issues prevail. Thus, this study proposed a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) hybrid for crime forecasting. The proposed technique is evaluated using New York City crime data from 2010–2017. The proposed approach outperformed as compared to state-of-the-art Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (SARIMA) with low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (0.3738, 0.3891, 0.3433,0.3964), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)(13.146, 13.669, 13.104, 13.77), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) (9.837, 10.896, 10.598, 10.721). Therefore, the proposed technique can help law enforcement agencies to prevent and control crime by forecasting crime patterns.

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How crime affects economic performance: The case of Guatemala

Cited by 13 publications

References 10 publications

Profiling Crime in Pakistan: An Aggregated and Disaggregated Socioeconomic Analysis

Profiling Crime in Pakistan: An Aggregated and Disaggregated Socioeconomic Analysis

Arming for conflict, arming for peace? How small arms imports affect intrastate conflict risk

Hybrid of deep learning and exponential smoothing for enhancing crime forecasting accuracy

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