How Far Should the UK Go with Negative Emission Technologies?

Abstract

Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs), such as Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS), are potentially valuable to offset carbon emissions and therefore commonly deployed in global climate change mitigation scenarios. However, they are controversial and sometimes seen as a means of delaying or avoiding emissions reduction efforts. Nonetheless, the UK has set an ambitious target of engineering 57 Mt CO2 per year of removals by 2050 to achieve net zero emissions [1]. This study uses the UK TIMES, technology-rich bottom-up energy system model to investigate the nationwide deployment of NETs in the energy system, while varying model parameters to provide an overview of decarbonisation in line with the UK's net zero ambitions. We investigated DACCS and BECCS NETs technologies with regards to technological uncertainties and sensitivities. We revised the TIMES model structure for NETs implementation to ensure proper integration with industry. Our analysis estimates that the UK can remove 78.5 Mt CO2 by 2050 under the balanced Net Zero Scenario. However, by integrating an updated characterisation of removal technologies, and enabling tighter integration of DACCS into industrial clusters, we can achieve a removal capacity of up to 209 Mt CO2 by 2050 based on our preliminary results. Additionally, a 50% reduction in DACCS cost could further increase the removal capacity to 218 Mt CO2. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the UK and beyond, highlighting how NETs can be integrated in industrial strategy.