How food secure are the green, rocky and middle roads: food security effects in different world development paths

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) address food and nutrition security with goal number two. Food and nutrition security is a complicated issue, and understanding its future requires insights into (i) food availability, (ii) food access, (iii) food utilisation, and (iv) food stability. Not all these dimensions are covered by the SDG2 and its indicators. A unique feature of this paper is that it focuses on the first three dimensions of food security in addition to the prevalence of undernourishment (SDG indicator 2.1.1). Here we explore future food security in the absence of dedicated policies, to derive the 'policy gap' for this goal. The internationally agreed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) are quantified using a computable general equilibrium model (MAGNET) coupled with an integrated assessment model (IMAGE) that enable a linkage between income and expenditures given segmented labour markets. Based on the three dimensions of food security our results showed a less optimistic outlook than based on previous studies. Food availability is projected to improve in all 5 SSP scenarios, except South Asia in SSP3 due to serious land constraints. As a result, the number of undernourished people decreases in most scenarios, becoming increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. However, undernourishment stays high in SSP4 (550 million people) and increases to over two billion people in SSP3. Food access generally improves due to higher agricultural and nonagricultural wages of unskilled workers. However, due to lock-in effects the wages of unskilled agricultural workers might decline, leading to reduced food access in SSP3, SSP4 and SSP2. The indicator of food utilisation shows food security problems for Sub-Saharan Africa in SSP3 and SSP4. Our results indicate that food security problems remain and that effective policies are needed to achieve food security for all. OPEN ACCESS RECEIVED

The impact of phosphorus on projected Sub-Saharan Africa food security futures

“…The other pathways still have increases but at a lesser rate: SSP2 (middle of the road): 2700 kcal capita −1 day −1 , SSP3 (increased nationalism) 2440 kcal capita −1 day −1 and SSP4 (unequal) 2440 kcal capita −1 day −1 . By contrast, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in 2010 were already at 3400 kcal capita −1 day −1 (Table 1 ) 5 .…”

“…By contrast, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in 2010 were already at 3400 kcal capita −1 day −1 (Table 1 ) 5 .…”

“…Access to food is the ability of people to access sufficient food: factors such as income and power-differentials all affect this, hence, it is more complicated than food availability to quantify. Income also affects how food is utilised and, in turn, the effect of food production on the environment 5 . This is because increases in wealth often result in changes of diet 4 associated with higher calorie intake and often resource intensive foods (e.g.…”

“…The challenge of increasing food security is greatest in Sub-Saharan Africa 4 , 31 which is further compounded due to widespread limited phosphorus use. Food security SSPs scenarios for the coming century have been mapped by a previous study using MAGNET—an agro-economic model coupled to IMAGE 5 . Total food demand is a function of multiple factors including the total number of calories required, total population, wealth and trade processes.…”

Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Aquaculture Projections

“…Based on these four socio-political scenarios, stakeholder perceptions and model outputs (for future price developments for feed ingredients, production costs and market returns) were combined to create plausible future conditions for Europe's most commercially and/or culturally important components of the aquaculture farming sector (Figure 2). Future price trends for each of the four CERES scenarios were derived from the global MAGNET model [see Woltjer and Kuiper (2014) for the model description and van Meijl et al (2020) for the assumptions for each of the SSP scenarios and results for the agricultural sector] as well as the FMFO model (based on Mullon et al, 2009). These scenario-specific price trends were then applied to "typical farm models" (Lasner et al, 2017) to estimate profitability in the year 2050 for Norwegian salmon and German carp farms, two case studies providing good contrasts in PESTEL elements.…”