How long is UK property cycle?

Jadevicius, Arvydas; Huston, Simon

doi:10.1108/jpif-10-2016-0083

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 70 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…An application of volatility indexing and Rtadf test is, however, somewhat a novelty in real estate, especially in Dutch housing market research context. Considering indexing approach, Jadevicius and Huston (2017) combined it successfully with HP filter to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycle. Blended technique allowed researchers to isolate atypical fluctuations in series and measure cycle peaks and troughs more precisely.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The HP filter is a four-step equation function, where equation (1) extracts growth component gt and a cyclical component ct from the series; equation (2) determines the growth component; equation (3) computes smoothing parameter; and equation (4) obtains the cyclical element of the time-series (McGough and Tsolacos, 1995; Hodrick and Prescott, 1997, Jadevicius and Huston, 2017). Peaks and troughs are then used to measure property cycle duration: …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects

Jadevicius¹,

Gool

2020

JERER

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose This study is a practice undertaking examining three main concerns that currently dominate Dutch housing market debate: how long is the cycle, will the current house price inflation continue and is housing market in a bubble. With national house prices reaching record highs across all major cities, future market prospects became a topic of significant debate among policymakers, investors and the populace. Design/methodology/approach A triangulation of well-established academic methods is used to perform investigation. The models include Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, volatility autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH approximation) and right tail augmented Dickey–Fuller (Rtadf) test (bubble screening technique). Findings Interestingly, over the years from 1985 to 2019 research period, filtering extracts only one Dutch national housing cycle. This is a somewhat distinct characteristic compared to other advanced Western economies (inter alia the UK and the USA) where markets tend to experience 8- to 10-year gyrations. Volatility and Rtadf test suggest that current house prices in most Dutch cities are in excess of historical averages and statistical thresholds. House price levels in Almere, Amsterdam, The Hague, Groningen, Rotterdam and Utrecht are of particular concern. Originality/value Retail investors should therefore be cautious as they are entering the market at the time of elevated housing values. For institutional investors, those investing in long-term, housing in key Dutch metropolitan areas, even if values decline, is still an attractive investment conduit.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects

Jadevicius¹,

Gool

2020

JERER

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Property prices were rising quite strongly until 2017. The decision of British voters to leave the European Union then clearly has had negative effects on house prices (Jadevicius and Huston, 2017 and Sivitanides, 2018). The Brexit seems to affect the property market in a number of ways.…”

Section: Property Prices In the Ukmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forward-looking financial risk management and the housing market in the United Kingdom: is there a role for sentiment indicators?

Kunze¹,

Basse²,

Gonzalez

et al. 2020

JRF

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose In the current low-interest market environment, more and more asset managers have started to consider to invest in property markets. To implement adequate and forward-looking risk management procedures, this market should be analyzed in more detail. Therefore, this study aims to examine the housing market data from the UK. More specifically, sentiment data and house prices are examined, using techniques of time-series econometrics suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The monthly data used in this study is the RICS Housing Market Survey and the Nationwide House Price Index – covering the period from January 2000 to December 2018. Furthermore, the authors also analyze the stability of the implemented Granger causality tests. In sum, the authors found clear empirical evidence for unidirectional Granger causality from sentiment indicator to the house prices index. Consequently, the sentiment indicator can help to forecast property prices in the UK. Design/methodology/approach By investigating sentiment data for house prices using techniques of time-series econometrics (more specifically the procedure suggested by Toda and Yamamoto, 1995), the research question whether sentiment indicators can be helpful to predict property prices in the UK is analyzed empirically. Findings The empirical results show that the RICS Housing Market Survey can help to predict the house prices in the UK. Practical implications Given these findings, the information provided by property market sentiment indicators certainly should be used in a forward-looking early warning system for house prices in the UK. Originality/value To authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the procedure suggested by Toda and Yamaoto to search for suitable early warning indicators for investors in UK real estate assets.

show abstract

“…As cyclical understanding matured, the influence of the wider economic context on property market fluctuations became apparent in the past decade of the twentieth century (Jadevicius and Huston, 2017). Current understanding acknowledges the strong correlation between economic performance, international capital flows and real estate property cycles (Jadevicius and Huston, 2017;Vermaas, 2007). The classical business cycles comprise short from four-to five-year cycles (Barras, 1994).…”

Section: Disposal Of Corporate Real Estatementioning

confidence: 99%

Disposal strategies in corporate real estate portfolios

Remøy

Rovers²,

Nase

2019

JCRE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop an operational framework with guidelines and lessons to improve the current real estate portfolio disposal procedures of freeholds, based on empirical evidence from the banking sector. Design/methodology/approach The empirical research is based on a comparative analysis of four case studies, representing approximately 80 per cent of the Dutch banking sector. The case studies comprise a systematic document review of corporate business and real estate strategies and semi-structured interviews with decision makers who steer the organisation’s corporate real estate (CRE) portfolio composition. Findings This research shows a strong relationship between organisation characteristics, legacy and strategy, disposal drivers and CRE disposal strategies. The weighing of drivers and order of steps in strategy execution strategies largely depend on organisational objectives. Research limitations/implications This paper reports empirical findings from Dutch case studies. To generalise, further research is needed in different legal, financial and economic contexts and in other sectors. This paper suggests a more thorough study of the relationship between space-use efficiency and technological innovation implementation.. Practical implications The framework proposes strategy improvements and a proactive approach to corporate real estate management (CREM) to create value through real estate portfolios. Originality/value This paper provides a thorough analysis of the CREM of the Dutch banking sector and is applicable to CREM in this and other sectors.

show abstract

How long is UK property cycle?

Cited by 10 publications

References 70 publications

Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects

Assessing Dutch housing cycle and near-term market prospects

Forward-looking financial risk management and the housing market in the United Kingdom: is there a role for sentiment indicators?

Disposal strategies in corporate real estate portfolios

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About