How Snowfalls Affect the Operation of Taxi Fleets? A Case Study from Harbin, China

Abstract

Taxi network plays an important role in urban passenger transportation. However, its operation is greatly affected by weather, especially by snowfalls in cold region. In this study, we focus on the persistent effect of snowfall on taxi operation and propose an autoregressive distribution lag model (ARDL) to quantitatively analyse it. To support our study, the taxi GPS trajectory data collected in Harbin, China, during 61 days from 1 November to 31 December in 2015 is analysed. First, the daily average order volume (DAOV) is acquired through data sampling and processing. Then, combined with the data of daily snowfall during the 61 days, the ARDL model is constructed. The result shows that the snowfall has a lag effect on taxi operation and it lasts about 3 days. To better interpret the result, visualization of total 6 days before and after a heavy snowfall is conducted. The result also indicates that weekends have a positive effect on operation. These results are expected to assist us to better understand the effect of snowfall on taxi operation and provide some policy suggestions for local municipal and transportation management departments to ensure the normal operation of taxi networks.

The Association between Rainfall and Taxi Travel Activities: A Case Study from Wuhan, China

“…Given the intricate and variable nature of weather factors, current research predominantly focuses on the impact of various weather elements on taxi travel activities and crowd mobility patterns [52]. For instance, Li et al investigated the lag efects of snowfall on taxi operations using GPS data, revealing substantial delayed efects induced by snowfall [22]. Caceres et al developed an efective probability model utilizing ETC toll data to estimate the distribution of travel times on highways under diferent weather conditions [53].…”

“…Caceres et al developed an efective probability model utilizing ETC toll data to estimate the distribution of travel times on highways under diferent weather conditions [53]. Disastrous weather events like typhoons and storm surges bring destructive impacts to transportation [22,[54][55][56]. Additionally, rainfall exerts a more pronounced efect on residents' daily travel patterns [23,57], causing delays during normal travel times and infuencing drivers' moods, resulting in changes to the spatiotemporal distribution of trafc demand [58][59][60].…”

“…Weather conditions, as an integral part of the urban ecosystem, exert a signifcant infuence on the daily travel patterns of residents and population movements [20][21][22][23][24]. Terefore, comprehending how adverse weather afects human travel patterns contributes to enhancing public transportation services and better meeting passengers' travel needs under diverse weather conditions.…”

“…Terefore, comprehending how adverse weather afects human travel patterns contributes to enhancing public transportation services and better meeting passengers' travel needs under diverse weather conditions. Various meteorological factors have been well researched in the transportation domain, including rainfall [25,26], snowfall [22], temperature [27], and wind [28], either individually or in combinations [29][30][31]. Existing studies primarily employ exploratory and descriptive methods, such as statistical charts, graphs, and summaries, to analyse and describe data characteristics under diferent weather conditions [32].…”

“…Existing studies primarily employ exploratory and descriptive methods, such as statistical charts, graphs, and summaries, to analyse and describe data characteristics under diferent weather conditions [32]. For instance, Liu et al quantifed the impact of weather on ridehailing taxi passenger volume, fnding that a 1 mm increase in precipitation led to a 0.39% rise in trafc volume, while a 1 m/s increase in wind speed resulted in a 1.04% decrease in trafc volume [22]. Autoregressive Distributed Lag models, built on statistically summarized data, are used for quantitative analysis of the sustained efects of snowfall on taxi operations [33].…”