How the Massachusetts Assault Weapons Ban Enforcement Notice Changed Firearm Sales

Balakrishna, Meenakshi; Wilbur, Kenneth C.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3779510

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Firearm surveillance data have been used to test potential policy responses to prevent mass shootings, including the FAWB [32,[34][35][36][37][38][39], Extreme Risk Protection Orders (also known as red flag laws) [40][41][42][43][44][45], and federal and state LCM bans [31,32,46]. In particular, it seems likely that the FAWB and LCM bans have potential to affect mass shootings because they regulate weapons and ammunition formats that are designed to enable rapid discharge, which is a key feature in mass shooting incidents [24,47].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Post¹,

Mason²,

Singh³

et al. 2021

JMIR Public Health Surveill

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. Objective The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place. Methods We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place. Results The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Post¹,

Mason²,

Singh³

et al. 2021

JMIR Public Health Surveill

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Proxies for legal firearm prevalence

Kim

Wilbur

2022

Quant Mark Econ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Product acquisition policies define legal markets. Policy evaluations require data but prevalence data are not always available. We introduce Legal Firearm Prevalence (LFP), a direct behavioral measure based on the population of firearm licensees in Massachusetts, and argue that it can help evaluate firearm sales and usage restrictions. LFP is not directly measurable in most firearm markets, so we test candidate proxies for LFP in several common research designs, finding that firearm acquisitions are the best proxy in every research design tested. We update the classic study of guns and crime by Cook and Ludwig (2006), finding that choosing an invalid proxy can lead to false research conclusions. We recommend systematic collection and reporting of firearm acquisition data to improve firearm research and inform firearm policy.

show abstract

How the Massachusetts Assault Weapons Ban Enforcement Notice Changed Firearm Sales

Cited by 2 publications

References 24 publications

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis

Proxies for legal firearm prevalence

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About