How to estimate the probability of a live birth after one or more complete IVF cycles？The development of a novel model in a single-center

Abstract

Objective To estimate the probability of a live birth for an infertile couple after one or more complete cycles of in vitro fertilization (IVF) by using a Cox regression and Nomogram model. Methods A retrospective study for establishing a prediction model was conducted in the reproductive center of Shenzhen Zhongshan Urology Hospital. A total of 4413 patients who completed ovarian stimulation treatment and reached the trigger were involved. 70% of the patients were randomly placed into the training set (n = 3089) and the remaining 30% of the patients were placed into the validation set (n = 1324) randomly. Live birth rate (LBR) and cumulative LBR (CLBR) were calculated for one retrieval cycle and the subsequent five frozen embryo transfer (FET) cycles. Proportional Hazards (PH) Assumption test was used for selecting the parameter in the predictive model. A Cox regression model was built based on the basis of training set, and ROC curves were used to test the specificity and sensitivity of the prediction model. Subsequently, the validation set was applied to verify the validity of the model. Finally, for a more intuitive assessment of the CLBR more intuitively for clinicians and patients, a Nomogram model was established based on predictive model. By calculating the scores of the model, the clinicians could more effectively predict the probability for an individual patient to obtain at least one live birth. Result(s): In the fresh embryo transfer cycle, the LBR was 38.7%. In the first to fifth FET cycle, the optimal estimate and conservative estimate CLBRs were 59.95%, 65.41%, 66.35%, 66.58%, 66.61% and 56.81%, 60.84%, 61.50%, 61.66%, 61.68%, respectively. Based on PH test results, the potential predictive factors for live birth were insemination method, infertility factors, serum progesterone level (R = 0.043, p = 0.059), and luteinizing hormone level (R = 0.015, p = 0.499) on the day initiated with gonadotropin, basal follicle-stimulating hormone (R = -0.042, p = 0.069) and BMI (R = -0.035, p = 0.123). We used ROC curve to test the predictive power of the model. The AUC was 0.782 (p < 0.01, 95% CI: 0.764–0.801). Then the model was verified using the validation data. The AUC was 0.801 (p < 0.01, 95% CI: 0.774–0.828). A Nomogram model was built based on potential predictive factors that might influence the event of a live birth. Conclusion(s): The Cox regression and Nomogram prediction models effectively predicted the probability of infertile couples having a live birth. Therefore, this model could assist clinicians with making clinical decisions and providing guidance for patients. Trial registration: N/A.