How well is Brazil prepared for a disease‐modifying Alzheimer’s treatment?

Abstract

BackgroundWhile the majority of patients with Alzheimer’s disease resides in low and middle‐income countries, little is known of their preparedness for emerging disease‐modifying treatments. We analyze the preparedness of Brazil, one of the most populous middle‐income countries, from a capacity and institutional preparedness perspective.MethodDesk research and 12 interviews for background and capacity data. Markov model to estimate wait times for access to treatment.ResultBrazil has no national dementia strategy or established pathway for evaluation of cognitive concerns, and dementia is typically diagnosed late if at all. While members of private health plans have ready access to elective specialty care, wait times in the public sector are long. Assuming potentially treatment‐eligible patients are referred from primary to specialty care based on a brief cognitive exam and a blood test for the Alzheimer’s pathology, available capacity will not be sufficient to match the projected demand (Figure 1). The biggest obstacle is availability of dementia specialist visits, and the effect of population growth and ageing means that the wait list for specialist appointment will continue to grow from around 400,000 in 2022 to over 2.2 million in 2040. We do not project substantial wait times for confirmatory biomarker testing and treatment delivery but note that this is a consequence of patients waiting for their specialist appointments. These queues will result in estimated persistent wait times for treatment of around two years on average with substantial differences between the public and private sectors, as capacity growth is insufficient to keep up with increasing demand.ConclusionOur findings suggest that Brazil is ill‐prepared to provide timely access to an Alzheimer’s treatment with predicted wait times of about two years, largely because of a limited number of dementia specialists. Access is likely to be unequal based on socioeconomic status and geographic location. Closing this gap will be challenging because of high public debt and chronic underinvestment, leaving a focus on prevention and on use of scalable technologies, such as digital cognitive and blood tests for Alzheimer’s disease as viable option. A national dementia plan with an implementation strategy would be an important first step.