Human-Ecosystem Interaction in Large Ensemble-Models

Gray, Randall; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Little, Richard

doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-6134-0_4

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…It is possible to model some aspects of human behaviour, thereby reducing some forms of uncertainty [100]. Agent-based models have been an effective means of capturing the nuances of human behaviour, information sharing and learning, both at the level of individual actions, but also for entire communities [84]. These models use sets of empirically derived behavioural rules (or decision trees) to dictate behaviour rather than equations, though both can be used in combination.…”

Section: (B) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles

Fulton

Bax

Bustamante

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with ‘no-action’ counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human–ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential ‘surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.

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Section: (B) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%