Hybrid intelligent method for fuzzy reliability analysis of corroded X100 steel pipelines

Bagheri, Mansour; Zhu, Shun‐Peng; Seghier, Mohamed El Amine Ben; Keshtegar, Behrooz; Nguyen-Thoi, T.

doi:10.1007/s00366-020-00969-1

Cited by 40 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…PT uses the membership function of the variable to preserve the inherent random nature of the variable. When there are many variables, the fuzzy operation in PT is simpler than the probability method (Su et al, 2018;Bagheri et al, 2021). Moreover, PT will provide a more conservative design when the data is insufficient.…”

Section: Rbmdo-sora Considering Epistemic Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multidisciplinary design optimization of engineering systems under uncertainty: a review

Meng

Yang

et al. 2022

IJSI

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PurposeAs an advanced calculation methodology, reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO) has been widely acknowledged for the design problems of modern complex engineering systems, not only because of the accurate evaluation of the impact of uncertain factors but also the relatively good balance between economy and safety of performance. However, with the increasing complexity of engineering technology, the proposed RBMDO method gradually cannot effectively solve the higher nonlinear coupled multidisciplinary uncertainty design optimization problems, which limits the engineering application of RBMDO. Many valuable works have been done in the RBMDO field in recent decades to tackle the above challenges. This study is to review these studies systematically, highlight the research opportunities and challenges, and attempt to guide future research efforts.Design/methodology/approachThis study presents a comprehensive review of the RBMDO theory, mainly including the reliability analysis methods of different uncertainties and the decoupling strategies of RBMDO.FindingsFirst, the multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) preliminaries are given. The basic MDO concepts and the corresponding mathematical formulas are illustrated. Then, the procedures of three RBMDO methods with different reliability analysis strategies are introduced in detail. These RBMDO methods were proposed for the design optimization problems under different uncertainty types. Furtherly, an optimization problem for a certain operating condition of a turbine runner blade is introduced to illustrate the engineering application of the above method. Finally, three aspects of future challenges for RBMDO, namely, time-varying uncertainty analysis; high-precision surrogate models, and verification, validation and accreditation (VVA) for the model, are discussed followed by the conclusion.Originality/valueThe scope of this study is to introduce the RBMDO theory systematically. Three commonly used RBMDO-SORA methods are reviewed comprehensively, including the methods' general procedures and mathematical models.

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Section: Rbmdo-sora Considering Epistemic Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…When there are many variables, the fuzzy operation in PT is simpler than the probability method (Su et al. , 2018; Bagheri et al. , 2021).…”

Section: Rbmdo-sora Considering Epistemic Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidisciplinary design optimization of engineering systems under uncertainty: a review

Meng

Yang

et al. 2022

IJSI

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“…For example, the FORM can provide unstable estimations related to problems with variables that are characterized by non-normal distributions, similar to those of RC beams. Modified versions of the FORM approach have been developed over the years to enhance its ability to accurately estimate the MPP to fail on the surface of the performance function [30,31]. These improvements include two types of enhancements: steepest descent and conjugate search directions [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Beams Subjected to Uniform and Pitting Corrosion and Brittle Fracture

2021

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Reinforced concrete (RC) beams are basic elements used in the construction of various structures and infrastructural systems. When exposed to harsh environmental conditions, the integrity of RC beams could be compromised as a result of various deterioration mechanisms. One of the most common deterioration mechanisms is the formation of different types of corrosion in the steel reinforcements of the beams, which could impact the overall reliability of the beam. Existing classical reliability analysis methods have shown unstable results when used for the assessment of highly nonlinear problems, such as corroded RC beams. To that end, the main purpose of this paper is to explore the use of a structural reliability method for the multi-state assessment of corroded RC beams. To do so, an improved reliability method, namely the three-term conjugate map (TCM) based on the first order reliability method (FORM), is used. The application of the TCM method to identify the multi-state failure of RC beams is validated against various well-known structural reliability-based FORM formulations. The limit state function (LSF) for corroded RC beams is formulated in accordance with two corrosion types, namely uniform and pitting corrosion, and with consideration of brittle fracture due to the pit-to-crack transition probability. The time-dependent reliability analyses conducted in this study are also used to assess the influence of various parameters on the resulting failure probability of the corroded beams. The results show that the nominal bar diameter, corrosion initiation rate, and the external loads have an important influence on the safety of these structures. In addition, the proposed method is shown to outperform other reliability-based FORM formulations in predicting the level of reliability in RC beams.

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“…Moreover, dew point temperature is an important parameter for the prediction of long-term changes in climate [8]. Over the last few decades, artificial intelligence (AI) models have found vast application in the modeling and estimation of various engineering and sciences problems [9]- [12]. However, a remarkable advancement has been observed within the natural process applications such as hydrology [13], [14], climate [15], morphologies [16], [17] and environnement [18], [19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dew Point Time Series Forecasting at the North Dakota

Arikan¹,

Jiechen²,

Sabbah³

et al. 2021

Kbes

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Hydrological time series forecasting is one of the hot topics in the domain of statistical hydrology. Providing accurate forecasting can contribute to diverse applications for catchment sustainability and management. Dew point temperature (Tdew) is one of the complex hydrological processes that highly essential to be quantified accurately for several catchment activities such as crops, agriculture, and others. In this study, three types of models’ recursive strategy, direct strategy, and DirRec which is the combination of recursive and direct strategies were adopted to obtain h-steps ahead predictions of Tdew. Ten years monthly scale dataset of Tdew at two meteorological stations (Beach and Cavalier) located at the North Dakota, USA, were used for the modeling development. The performance of the considered models was compared with two benchmark models: autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ETS). Modeling results indicated that, compared with the benchmark models, the proposed methods gave good results for the multi-ahead forecasting. For instance, for Cavalier station, the root mean squared prediction errors obtained from the proposed and benchmark methods when the forecast horizon is 12 are as follows: recursive strategy (RMSPE = 3.731) direct strategy (RMSPE = 3.385), DirRec (RMSPE = 3.141), ARIMA (RMSPE = 12.957), and ETS (RMSPE = 27.479).

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Hybrid intelligent method for fuzzy reliability analysis of corroded X100 steel pipelines

Cited by 40 publications

References 61 publications

Multidisciplinary design optimization of engineering systems under uncertainty: a review

Multidisciplinary design optimization of engineering systems under uncertainty: a review

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Beams Subjected to Uniform and Pitting Corrosion and Brittle Fracture

Dew Point Time Series Forecasting at the North Dakota

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