Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions

Iglésias, I.; Bio, Ana; Melo, Willian; Paulo, Andrzej; Pinho, José L. S.; Cruz, Mariana; Gomes, Ana; Vieira, J. M. Pereira; Bastos, L.; Gomes, Fernando Veloso

doi:10.3390/w14121966

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…For example, Ganju et al [2] provided a comprehensive overview of the evolution of estuarine modeling, discussing progress in terms of both hydrodynamic and ecological aspects, along with remaining challenges. Iglesias et al [3] highlighted the growing use of model ensembles for capturing uncertainties in climate change projections and their impacts on estuarine hydrodynamics. Iglesias et al [4] showcased the application of a high-resolution model to capture complex flow patterns in a shallow estuary, including stratification and eddies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Large, Shallow Estuary

Ji,

Moustafa,

Hamrick

2024

JMSE

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Florida Bay, a large and shallow estuary, serves as a vital habitat for a diverse range of marine species and holds significant environmental, commercial, and recreational value. The Florida Bay ecosystem is under extensive stress due to decades of increased nutrient loads. Based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), a hydrodynamic model was developed in this study. The model was calibrated with a comprehensive dataset, including measurements over 7 years from 34 tidal stations, 42 current stations, and 14 temperature and salinity stations. Key findings include the following: (1) the bay exhibits a shift in the tidal regime, transitioning from macro-tidal in the western region to micro-tidal in the central and eastern/northeast regions; (2) local winds and the subtidal variations from the coastal ocean are the primary drivers for the hydrodynamic processes in the eastern and central regions; (3) salinity changes in the bay are primarily controlled by three processes: the net supply of freshwater, the processes that drive mixing within the estuary (e.g., wind, topography, currents), and the exchange of salinity with the coastal ocean. This hydrodynamic model is essential for providing a comprehensive tool to address environmental challenges and sustain the bay’s ecosystem health.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Large, Shallow Estuary

Ji,

Moustafa,

Hamrick

2024

JMSE

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“…It is essential to effectively understand the dynamics of tides, waves, and currents in the vicinity of ports and the distribution characteristics of nearshore flow fields influenced by the water depth and topography near the ports. Therefore, studying tidal and sea level variations holds significant importance and practical value [8][9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Exploration of the Impact of Average Sea Level Change on Navigational Safety in Ports

Chang¹,

Wang²

2023

Water

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The primary clientele of a harbor is vessels, and vessels are primarily influenced by external forces such as wind (on the water surface), currents (underwater), and waves (affecting vessel stability). Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively consider safety factors such as marine environmental forces and port characteristics. As ship sailing falls under applied science, acquiring marine meteorological information regarding ship routes can enhance port navigational safety. However, in the face of changes in the environmental conditions of harbor waters, it is essential to fully consider the impact of the external environment on ship maneuvering. One can effectively navigate complex operating environments by devising reasonable ship-handling plans. In the context of sea level rise caused by extreme climatic events, long-term variations, trends, and random factors are at play. Previous assessments of sea level rise have often relied on linear regression and the least squares method to determine coefficients. However, these methods fail to accurately capture the actual trend of sea level rise. Additionally, traditional harmonic analysis methods are unable to analyze sea level rise as well. Therefore, in this study, the techniques of simple moving average (SMA), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) were applied to analyze sea level rise. The obtained results of sea level rise under different analysis conditions were integrated with a hydrodynamic model that incorporates both wave and tidal characteristics to calculate the overall coastal dynamics parameters, which are crucial for ship navigation. The research findings contribute to the study of ship navigational safety issues by examining the distribution characteristics of port meteorology under climate change conditions. They offer valuable insights for mariners to assess navigational safety and devise maneuvering strategies based on the actual water flow conditions. Furthermore, the findings help identify and address potential risks and issues, ultimately ensuring the safety of navigation.

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“…Numerical models have been shown to be robust and adequate tools that allow us to thoroughly analyze estuarine dynamics and to consistently forecast the impacts of anthropogenic activities, extreme weather events, and climate change conditions [23]. Estuaries and adjacent areas along the Portuguese coast have been studied in detail in recent decades, and their crucial nursery role and habitat use by juveniles of several commercially important species have been frequently highlighted [24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the Functional Role of the Tejo Estuary (Portugal, Europe) According to Fish Ecological Guilds

França

2023

Fishes

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Estuaries are extremely productive ecosystems, providing habitats for numerous aquatic species and crucial ecological services. The Tejo estuary, one of the largest European estuaries, has been thoroughly studied, and its important functional role as a nursery for several commercially important fish species is already established. In the present work, a trait-based approach was applied to functionally describe the fish community structure of the Tejo estuary and to enlighten potential changes in the ecosystem functioning at this level, following environmental changes expected to occur. To predict the distribution of species from the two most representative ecological guilds of the Tejo estuary, estuarine residents and marine migrants, species distribution models were built using an ensemble technique (combining forecasts of single models). The predictions obtained were more accurate for the marine migrants and the species distribution was strongly related with salinity, whereas estuarine species, were also influenced by depth, habitat type and river flow. The potential distributions of these ecological guilds showed that marine migrants will tend to use upstream areas in the estuary, where salinity is lower. Nonetheless, salinity is expected to increase as extreme weather events such as droughts tend to occur more frequently, decreasing favorable habitat availability for these species, and thus threatening the crucial role this ecosystem plays for these species.

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Hydrodynamic Model Ensembles for Climate Change Projections in Estuarine Regions

Cited by 11 publications

References 54 publications

Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Large, Shallow Estuary

Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Large, Shallow Estuary

Analysis and Exploration of the Impact of Average Sea Level Change on Navigational Safety in Ports

Changes in the Functional Role of the Tejo Estuary (Portugal, Europe) According to Fish Ecological Guilds

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