Hydrologic Response in an Urban Watershed as Affected by Climate and Land Use Change

Abstract

The change in both streamflow and baseflow in urban catchments has received significant attention in the latest decades as a result of their drastic variability. In this research, effects of climate variation and dynamics of land use are measured separately and in combination on streamflow and baseflow in the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed (Indianapolis, Indiana). These effects are examined using land use maps, statistical tests, and hydrological modeling. Transition matrix analysis was used to investigate the change in land use between 1992 and 2011. Temporal trends and changes in meteorological data were evaluated from 1980-2017 using the Mann-Kendall test. Changes in streamflow and baseflow were assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model using multiple scenarios that varied in land use and climate change. Evaluation of the model outputs showed streamflow and baseflow in LEC are well represented using SWAT; however, comparing the calibration and validation period showed SWAT performs better for the calibration. During 1992-2011, roughly 30% of the watershed experienced change, typically cultivated agricultural areas became urbanized. Baseflow is significantly affected by the observed urbanization; however, the combination of land and climate variability has a larger effect on the baseflow in LEC. Generally, the variability in the baseflow and streamflow appears to be heavily driven by the response to climate change in comparison to variability due to altered land use. The results reported herein expand the current understanding of variation in hydrological components, and provides useful information for management planning regarding water resources, as well as water and soil conservation in urban watersheds in Indiana and beyond.

Pengembangan Model Analisis Spasial Untuk Mensimulasikan Respon Hidrologi

“…Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan model analisis spasial dinamis untuk mensimulasikan respons hidrologi [6]. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan dua tahap berikut.…”

A Comparison of Streamflow and Baseflow Responses to Land-Use and Climate Change Using SWAT

“…Climate alterations and human actions both act as stressors to place severe pressure on water resources [8,9]. The variations in climate and land use directly impact total streamflow, interflow, surface runoff and baseflow, causing events of droughts and floods that impact the sustainability of these resources and the social ecosystem [10].…”

“…This low-flow data is essential in understanding the current and future changes to watershed hydrology. Several reports have indicated that the change in baseflow over time is due to variations in agricultural management [18], climate change [8], urbanization [19], and land use alteration [20]. Therefore, in order to develop scenarios for water resources evaluation, land use change and climate variation are usually chosen as the main influencing factors.…”

“…Therefore, in order to develop scenarios for water resources evaluation, land use change and climate variation are usually chosen as the main influencing factors. The impacts of climate variation and urbanization on streamflow and baseflow are reviewed in Aboelnour et al [8] and Price [21].…”

“…The main target of this study is to evaluate the impact of separate and combined impacts of land use changes and climate alteration on streamflow and baseflow in two watersheds under different land use and climatic conditions. The specific goals of this research are: (1) identify the long term trend and the abrupt changes in hydrological and meteorological data; (2) determine the change in land use maps from 1992 to 2011; (3) use the new calibrated and validated SWAT model to assess the individual and combined impacts of land use change and climate variation on streamflow and baseflow; and (4) compare the outputs of this study with the findings of Aboelnour et al [8]. Information gleaned from this study can be used to understand the variations in hydrological flow components, and are necessary for water resources management and planning, as well as water and soil conservation in geographically different watersheds.…”