Hydrological Drought Regimes of the Huai River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications

Sun, Peng; Qiang, Zhang; Yao, Rui; Wen, Qingzhi

doi:10.3390/w11112390

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…In recent years, HI has shown better applicability in the study of drought, extreme drought and dryness and wetness changes in China. The calculation of HI is [8,33] HI = P PET (12) where the PET is calculated based on Thornthwaite method [34,35]. The advantage of Thornthwaite method is that it only needs the temperature and only considers the impact of surface energy on PET.…”

Section: Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi) and Humidity Index (Hi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Li et al [11] pointed out that frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of drought in the HRB would rise from 2010 to 2099. Sun et al [12] analyzed the hydrological drought regimes of the HRB and found that the frequency of hydrological droughts in the upper of the HRB was more than that in the middle of HRB under the climate change. He et al [13] analyzed the annual and seasonal SPI series of the HRB and found that there has been a drying trend in spring and autumn, and a wetting trend in summer and winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drought Trends and the Extreme Drought Frequency and Characteristics under Climate Change Based on SPI and HI in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huai River Basin, China

Hou

Wang

Fan

et al. 2020

Water

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The Huai River Basin (HRB) is an important grain and industrial production area in eastern China with frequent droughts. Under the background of current climate change, the hydrological and meteorological characteristics of the basin may be changed, which may lead to the changes of regional drought characteristics. It should be paid more attention on the drought research under climate change and the difference between different drought indices. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) as an important tool for climate change research has been used in the study and the study chosen three global circulation models (GCMs)—such as CNRM-CM5 (CNR), HadGEM2-ES (Had), and MIROC5 (MIR)—to gather an ensemble model (EnM) for providing the future climate information. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Humidity Index (HI) were used to evaluate and compare the drought situations in the past and the future periods with two representative concentration path scenarios (RCP4.5 & RCP8.5). Some sequence statistics methods, such as Mann–Kendall test and run theory, were carried out to analyze the trend and the changes of extreme drought frequency and characteristics values. The research showed that the simulation accuracy of the EnM would better. SPI and HI take different factors into count and thus lead to differences in describing drought trend, extreme drought frequency, and characteristic values, such as drought severity, drought duration, mean drought severity, and max drought intensity. The research showed that both SPI and HI showed the same wetting or drying trend in the same timescales (except winter) as in the historical data. However, the future annual and seasonal drought trend reflected by SPI shows a wetting trend while HI shows a drying trend. Both in the past and the future, extreme drought frequency and characteristic values reflected by HI are higher than SPI. The drought trend is greater, and the extreme drought frequency and characteristics tend to be strengthened under RCP8.5. Low precipitation and high potential evapotranspiration (PET), especially the PET caused by temperature rise, are the main influencing factors of drought in the future. Therefore, the influence of the PET should not be ignored in drought analysis and we should strengthen the comparative study of different drought indices in future drought analysis under climate change.

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Section: Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi) and Humidity Index (Hi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Trends and the Extreme Drought Frequency and Characteristics under Climate Change Based on SPI and HI in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huai River Basin, China

Hou

Wang

Fan

et al. 2020

Water

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“…The HRB covers a vast plain at low elevations. The HRB is an important commodity grain base (Sun et al ., 2019a) accounting for approximately 20% of the total grain production in China, which supports about 13% of the country's total population. The concurrent droughts and cold events have a vital influence on agricultural production and human health in the HRB.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substantial decrease in concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events in Huai River Basin, China

Zhang

Yang

Chen

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events can significantly impact local ecosystems, socio‐economies, and human health. The respective characteristics of droughts and cold extremes have been extensively studied, however, their concurrent extremes have received very little attention. In this study, we used the Huai River Basin as a case to build a magnitude index of concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events (CDCMI) based on daily minimum temperature data and a 1‐month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1961 to 2018. Results show that the magnitude of meteorological droughts increased over the observation period, while consecutive cold events significantly decreased. CDCMI showed a significant downward trend at a rate of −0.14 per decade. Large differences were observed between 1990–2018 and 1961–1989—especially in the southern parts of the basin (around −50%). The frequency of mild and moderate concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events showed no significant upward or downward trends, but severe and extreme concurrent events showed pronounced decreasing trends at rates of −0.03 events/decade and − 0.036 events/decade, respectively. Under the same return period, high CDCMI values are present in the southeastern part of the basin, indicating that the concurrent events in this region are more serious. When CDCMI = 1.79 (extreme grade), the return period in the southeastern part of the basin (5–10 years) is much lower than that in the northwestern part of the basin (>100 years), indicating that this part is harmed to a greater extent by the concurrent extremes than elsewhere in the basin. The spatial pattern of maximum CDCMI again indicates that the southeastern part of the basin is at a high risk for concurrent events. The proposed magnitude index may be a useful tool for analysing concurrent (compound) droughts and cold events as well as their potential impacts.

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“…The daily streamflow series from 1956 to 2016 at 7 hydrological stations were selected to calculate ecological instream flow in the HRB (Table 1). These data were obtained from the Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Hua River China [44]. The daily precipitation of 72 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2016 were provided by China Meteorological Administration.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Ecological Instream Flow and Relevant Causes in the Huai River Basin, China

Wen

Sun

Zhang

et al. 2021

Water

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Based on the daily precipitation data during 1960–2016 at 72 stations and the daily streamflow data during 1956–2016 at 7 hydrological stations in the Huai River Basin (HRB), China, eco-surplus and eco-deficit under influences of abrupt streamflow behaviors were analyzed using Flow Duration Curve (FDC). The relations between indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA) and ecological indicators (Shannon Index, SI) were quantified, investigating impacts of altered hydrological processes on the evaluations of the ecological instream flow. Besides, we also quantified fractional contributions of climatic indices to nonstationary ecological instream flow using the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework. While the possible impact of human activities on ecological instream flow will be revealed based on land use changes data. The results indicated that: (1) FDC is subject to general decrease due to hydrological alterations, and most streamflow components are lower than 25% FDC. We found increased eco-deficit and decreased eco-surplus due to altered hydrological processes. The FDC of the streamflow in the main stream of the HRB is lower than that along the tributaries of the HRB. Eco-surplus (eco-deficit) changes are in good line with precipitation anomaly changes during the Spring, Autumn and Winter periods. However, the hydrological alterations due to hydrological regulations by the reservoirs are the primary cause behind the mismatch between ecological instream flow and precipitation anomalies during summer; (2) Annual and seasonal eco-surplus (eco-deficit) is decreasing (increasing) and that during winter season is an exception. Although higher eco-surplus in winter than in other seasons, the eco-surplus is decreasing persistently and the 21st century witnessed the lowest eco-surplus along the main stream of the HRB. Meanwhile, the Shannon index indicated decreased ecological diversity across the HRB; (3) The ecological instream flow is highly sensitive to The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index (Nino3.4). Meanwhile, the ecological instream flow along the mainstream of the HRB is highly sensitive to climate indices. While the ecological instream flow by GAMLSS model has better fitting performance in describing the extreme values and local trends.

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Hydrological Drought Regimes of the Huai River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications

Cited by 13 publications

References 51 publications

Drought Trends and the Extreme Drought Frequency and Characteristics under Climate Change Based on SPI and HI in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huai River Basin, China

Drought Trends and the Extreme Drought Frequency and Characteristics under Climate Change Based on SPI and HI in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Huai River Basin, China

Substantial decrease in concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events in Huai River Basin, China

Nonstationary Ecological Instream Flow and Relevant Causes in the Huai River Basin, China

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