Hydrological simulations driven by RCM climate scenarios at basin scale in the Po River, Italy

Abstract

Abstract. River discharges are the main expression of the hydrological cycle and are the results of climate natural variability. The signal of climate changes occurrence raises the question of how it will impact on river flows and on their extreme manifestations: floods and droughts. This question can be addressed through numerical simulations spanning from the past (1971) to future (2100) under different climate change scenarios. This work addresses the capability of a modelling chain to reproduce the observed discharge of the Po River over the period 1971–2000. The modelling chain includes climate and hydrological/hydraulic models and its performance is evaluated through indices based on the flow duration curve. The climate datasets used for the 1971–2000 period are (a) a high resolution observed climate dataset, and COSMO-CLM regional climate model outputs with (b) perfect boundary condition, ERA40 Reanalysis, and (c) suboptimal boundary conditions provided by the global climate model CMCC–CM. The aim of the different simulations is to evaluate how the uncertainties introduced by the choice of the regional and/or global climate models propagate in the simulated discharges. This point is relevant to interpret the results of the simulated discharges when scenarios for the future are considered. The hydrological/hydraulic components are simulated through a physically-based distributed model (TOPKAPI) and a water balance model at the basin scale (RIBASIM). The aim of these first simulations is to quantify the uncertainties introduced by each component of the modelling chain and their propagation. Estimation of the overall uncertainty is relevant to correctly understand the future river flow regimes. The results show how bias correction algorithms can help in reducing the overall uncertainty associated to the different stages of the modelling chain.

High‐resolution climate simulations with COSMO‐CLM over Italy: performance evaluation and climate projections for the 21st century

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The Spread of the Japanese Beetle in a European Human-Dominated Landscape: High Anthropization Favors Colonization of Popillia japonica

“…Popillia japonica finds optimal conditions for its colonization in the human-dominated landscapes of the Po Valley. Thanks to favorable weather conditions and high water availability, the Po Valley is characterized by highly fertile and high-moisture soil [56]. These characteristics have favored the expansion of agriculture in the Po Valley, making it one of the most extensive and productive agricultural areas in Europe [57].…”

Hydrology across Disciplines: Organization and Application Experiences of a Public Hydrological Service in Italy

“…The main (European, national and regional) projects are related to: hydrological statistics for flood management and water resources management, sediments and contaminants transport, integration of surface and ground water modeling; climate change hydrological impacts, disaster risk management, integrated land use and water planning, integration of remote and in situ hydrological monitoring; habitat studies and water quality studies; education to sustainability; application of climate change projections to river discharge analysis [11] and application of the System for Economic and Environmental Accounting for Water (SEEA-Water) [12].…”