Hypersensitive decadal oscillations in the Arctic/Subarctic climate

Ikeda, Motoyoshi; Wang, J.; Zhao, Jinping

doi:10.1029/2000gl011773

Cited by 31 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The exact mechanism that causes Arctic warming is still unknown. However, it may be related to large‐scale atmospheric phenomena occurring on interannual scales like the North Atlantic Oscillation [ Dickson et al , 2000; Polyakov and Johnson , 2000] or Arctic Oscillation [ Thompson and Wallace , 1998; Ikeda et al , 2001].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability of circulation in the Arctic Ocean retrieved from climatological data by a variational method

2004

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[1] An inverse 3D finite-element ocean circulation model has been designed and used to study variability of the Arctic Ocean circulation in the last 4 decades. We obtained stationary model solutions with the temperature and salinity fields close to the ones given by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) [1998] atlas. Transports at the open boundaries, wind forcing and hydrographic fields are treated as unknowns, which are varied to minimize a quadratic cost function subject to model constraints. The inverse problem is solved for 10 gridded hydrographic data sets that were obtained as winter and summer averages of EWG data over each of the 4 decades (1950s to 1980s) and over the whole period of observations documented in the atlas. The results show that Arctic circulation in the last 4 decades has undergone significant changes, which manifest themselves in (1) 10% reduction of the ventilation rate in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean; (2) substantial decrease of the advective heat and freshwater import at the lateral boundaries; (3) spinning down of the cyclonic gyre in the northern Greenland sea, which is partly driven by deep convection; and (4) 3400 km 3 increase of the net fresh water storage, with 75% taking place in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean. Most of these changes are similar to the ones observed on seasonal transition from winter to summer climatologies, and indicate that the Arctic Ocean is experiencing a shift toward a warmer state.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability of circulation in the Arctic Ocean retrieved from climatological data by a variational method

2004

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“…Atmospheric circulation responses to the large surface heat loss in the BS have been proposed as one way to facilitate a positive feedback loop and thus maintain decadal oscillations in the Arctic air‐ice‐ocean system [ Ikeda ; Mysak and Venegas , ; Ikeda et al ., ; Bengtsson et al ., ]. We call this loop the “wind feedback.” In this feedback loop, the increased surface heat loss warms the lower atmosphere and leads to a local reduction in surface pressure (Figure d).…”

Section: Introduction and Focusmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of the Barents Sea in the Arctic Climate System

Smedsrud

Esau

Ingvaldsen

et al. 2013

Reviews of Geophysics

421

355

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Present global warming is amplified in the Arctic and accompanied by unprecedented sea ice decline. Located along the main pathway of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic, the Barents Sea is the site of coupled feedback processes that are important for creating variability in the entire Arctic air‐ice‐ocean system. As warm Atlantic Water flows through the Barents Sea, it loses heat to the Arctic atmosphere. Warm periods, like today, are associated with high northward heat transport, reduced Arctic sea ice cover, and high surface air temperatures. The cooling of the Atlantic inflow creates dense water sinking to great depths in the Arctic Basins, and ~60% of the Arctic Ocean carbon uptake is removed from the carbon‐saturated surface this way. Recently, anomalously large ocean heat transport has reduced sea ice formation in the Barents Sea during winter. The missing Barents Sea winter ice makes up a large part of observed winter Arctic sea ice loss, and in 2050, the Barents Sea is projected to be largely ice free throughout the year, with 4°C summer warming in the formerly ice‐covered areas. The heating of the Barents atmosphere plays an important role both in “Arctic amplification” and the Arctic heat budget. The heating also perturbs the large‐scale circulation through expansion of the Siberian High northward, with a possible link to recent continental wintertime cooling. Large air‐ice‐ocean variability is evident in proxy records of past climate conditions, suggesting that the Barents Sea has had an important role in Northern Hemisphere climate for, at least, the last 2500 years.

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“…However, since observational data are scarce, this is mainly based on results from coupled ocean-atmosphere models (Delworth et al 1993(Delworth et al , 1997Jungclaus et al 2005). Ikeda et al (2001), Bengtsson et al (2004), and Goosse and Holland (2005) showed that increased heat transport into the Barents Sea affects the local interactions between atmosphere and ocean. The associated warming in the Barents Sea reduces the SLP that feed back positively on ocean circulation and heat transport.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low-frequency variability of the arctic climate: the role of oceanic and atmospheric heat transport variations

Jungclaus

Köenigk

2009

Clim Dyn

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Changes in meridional heat transports, carried either by the atmosphere (HTRA) or by the ocean (HTRO), have been proposed to explain the decadal to multidecadal climate variations in the Arctic. On the other hand, model simulations indicate that, at high northern latitudes, variations in HTRA and HTRO are strongly coupled and may even compensate each other. A multi-century control integration with the Max Planck Institute global atmosphere-ocean model is analyzed to investigate the relative role of the HTRO and HTRA variations in shaping the Arctic climate and the consequences of their possible compensation. In the simulation, ocean heat transport anomalies modulate sea ice cover and surface heat fluxes mainly in the Barents Sea/Kara Sea region and the atmosphere responds with a modified pressure field. In response to positive HTRO anomalies there are negative HTRA anomalies associated with an export of relatively warm air southward to Western Siberia and a reduced inflow of heat over Alaska and northern Canada. While the compensation mechanism is prominent in this model, its dominating role is not constant over long time scales. The presence or absence of the compensation is determined mainly by the atmospheric circulation in the Pacific sector of the Arctic where the two leading large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns determine the lateral fluxes with varying contributions. The degree of compensation also determines the heat available to modulate the large-scale Arctic climate. The combined effect of atmospheric and oceanic contributions has to be considered to explain decadal-scale warming or cooling trends.

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Hypersensitive decadal oscillations in the Arctic/Subarctic climate

Abstract: Abstract. A conceptual model of the Arctic climate system is generated by taking two key components in the coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system, having a basis on a box model with water exchanges among the Arctic Basin, the Greenland

Cited by 31 publications

References 17 publications

Decadal variability of circulation in the Arctic Ocean retrieved from climatological data by a variational method

Decadal variability of circulation in the Arctic Ocean retrieved from climatological data by a variational method

The Role of the Barents Sea in the Arctic Climate System

Low-frequency variability of the arctic climate: the role of oceanic and atmospheric heat transport variations

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