I Hear What You Are Saying: Analysis of USAF Rated Officer Comments from the 2015 Military Career Decisions Survey

Abstract

For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD397.html Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org AbstractOver the last two decades the US Air Force (USAF) has consistently produced approximately 1000 pilots a year to meet their operational flying and mission requirements. And during this time period, approximately 1000 pilots a year voluntarily leave active duty. These departures could be from retirement, permanent loss of flight status, or the end of an initial commitment. Over this time, this stock and flow pattern of production and departures from the Air Force has been sufficient to meet the requirements of the USAF.However, the USAF has begun to see a significant rise in the expected number of pilots leaving active duty, specifically those pilots at the end of their initial commitment. As of March 2017, the total force of pilots in the USAF is 1,569 pilots less than the total number required. To make matters worse, by the 2020's the shortage of pilots in the active duty force is expected to increase to well over 2,000 pilots.Many researchers believe pilots are separating from the USAF because of an increase in major airline hiring because of the better pay and quality of life offered. However, these external pull factors are but a subset of reasons. Failure to understand what factors are truly impacting the pilot's decision to stay or go, and how these factors interact, leaves the USAF and the country potentially unprepared to fly, fight, and win.Using data from the USAF 2015 Active Duty Career Decisions Survey, this dissertation employs a range of qualitative data analysis techniques to examine the open-ended response questions related to a pilot's decision to remain or depart the service. This study is intended to inform USAF senior leadership about the factors and themes important to rated crew force retention decisions. Wit...