2017
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.02.008
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I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate  for structured expert judgement

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Cited by 102 publications
(95 citation statements)
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References 56 publications
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“…The protocol is simple to understand and apply and if needed could be undertaken entirely by hand (though most often in Excel), making it an attractive option for those who may have limited resources or time/willingness to familiarise with new techniques and/or software. Importantly, the protocol has been shown to yield relatively reliable judgements in domains as diverse as conservation (Burgman et al., ) and geopolitical forecasting (Hanea, McBride, et al., ; Hanea et al., ; Wintle et al., ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…The protocol is simple to understand and apply and if needed could be undertaken entirely by hand (though most often in Excel), making it an attractive option for those who may have limited resources or time/willingness to familiarise with new techniques and/or software. Importantly, the protocol has been shown to yield relatively reliable judgements in domains as diverse as conservation (Burgman et al., ) and geopolitical forecasting (Hanea, McBride, et al., ; Hanea et al., ; Wintle et al., ).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…; Speirs‐Bridge et al., ; Wintle, Fidler, Vesk, & Moore, ). More recently, the protocol was refined and tested in its entirety as part of a forecasting tournament that commenced in 2011 as an initiative of US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) (Hanea, McBride, et al., ; Hanea et al., ; Wintle et al., ). The results demonstrated the value of many steps of the IDEA protocol including using diverse experts in deliberative groups, of giving experts the opportunity to examine one‐another's estimates and to reconcile the meanings of questions through discussion.…”
Section: The Idea Protocolmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…While we found this approach was effective and practical, good practice in the use of experts continues to develop and should be considered in further applications of the scheme. This could include providing additional training steps for scorers using known data, using and evaluating scoring intervals and using multiple experts to independently score species before and after discussions (Hanea et al 2016;Martin et al 2012;Sutherland and Burgman 2015).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%