Identifying Inconsistencies in Long-Run Development Plans: The Case of Barbados' Vision for Energy Development

Moore, Winston; Korkeakoski, Mika; Luukkanen, Jyrki; Alleyne, Laron; Abdulkadri, Abdullahi O.; Brown, N. M.; Chambers, Therese; Costa, Orlando Escalona; Evans, Alecia; McKenzie, Sidonia; Reid, D. W.; Seisdedos, Luís Vázquez

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2772617

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The sensitivity analysis or optimisation could not be carried out comprehensively due to availability or confidentiality of the data. Unlike other similar studies with LINDA, e.g., [22][23][24] the optimisation (especially least cost options) studies was found challenging due to complex trade agreements, heavily subsidized oil products and other factors that may distort sensitivity analysis and finding the "correct optimisation" results in Cuba.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Similarly, decreasing costs, especially for wind and solar power, now offer a competitive alternative to conventional energy sources. Reducing the consumption of conventional sources towards zero decreases import dependence and supports sustainable energy transition necessary in Cuba to promote economic development [23].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…LINDA is an Excel-based tool used for energy systems analysis and building future scenarios. It has been used to model future energy systems e.g., in Cambodia and Lao PDR [20], Thailand [21], China [22], Barbados [23] and Cuba [24].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case

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The use of renewable energy sources (RES) has increased exponentially worldwide, as an alternative to the indiscriminate use of fossil fuels and to mitigate their effects on the environment. Cuba is not lagging behind in this development since the government’s plan until 2030 includes the contribution of renewable sources as a fundamental component in the national energy mix. This paper models possible scenarios based on 2019 statistics for achieving a 25% and 100% penetration of renewable sources by 2030 in the Isla de la Juventud’s (an island south of the main island of Cuba) electrical power system (EPS). This modeling is carried out utilizing and open source Excel-based accounting framework Long-range Integrated Development Analysis (LINDA). For this purpose, international and national trends in the use and development of renewable energy sources and the influence of the characteristics of each renewable source (wind, solar, biodiesel, battery storage) were analyzed. The analysis of Isla de la Juventud’s electrical power system was based on the characteristics of its energy mix, the possibilities of renewable energy penetration and the current and future energy demand by sector. Based on the analysis, two probable scenarios were modeled with LINDA model: a 25% renewable energy-based scenario (RENES) and a 100% renewables-based scenario (MAXRES). Results from RENES and MAXRES scenarios show high penetration of renewable energy sources in electricity generation is theoretically possible with the abundance of renewable energy resources, and thus it is possible for Cuba to move towards 100% renewable energy mix. However, the choices regarding the best fit energy mix need to be carefully analyzed in order to design a least cost system that answers the needs of the future demand.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case

et al. 2021

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“…Carneiro [38] found that the economy of Belize is highly prone to external threats and faced significant decline in the aftermath of the recent crisis, as well as in the case of the recession in the United States in the early 1990ies. More et al [39] have also emphasized the fact that the economy of Barbados is highly dependent upon energy imports, especially oil, making them additionally prone to shocks in the international market.…”

Section: Discussion Of Observed Tourism Dependent Economiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the “Natural Resource Curse” and the Impact of Various Forms of Capital in Small Tourism and Natural Resource Dependent Economies

Kurečić

Kokotović²

2016

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The question of the relevance of human and natural capital, as well as the potential adverse effect of natural capital on economic growth, has gained increased attention in development economics. The aim of this paper is to theoretically and empirically assess the relevance of several forms of capital on economic growth in small economies that are dependent upon tourism or natural resources. The empirical framework is based on Impulse Response Functions obtained from Vector Autoregressive models in which we focus on the model where economic growth is the dependent variable for ten small economies that are dependent upon either tourism or natural resources. We find that there is evidence of the ‘’natural resource curse’’, especially in the economies that have a strong dependence on resources that are easily substitutable and whose prices constantly fluctuate. We further find that in the majority of observed cases the type of capital these small economies are most dependent on for their economic growth causes negative impulses in the majority of the observed periods. The main policy recommendation should be to assure that even these small economies should strive towards further diversification and avoid dependence on only one segment of their economy.

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Towards 100% Renewables by 2030: Transition Alternatives for a Sustainable Electricity Sector in Isla de la Juventud, Cuba

Korkeakoski

2021

Energies

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Renewable Energy Sources (RES) have become increasingly desirable worldwide in the fight against global climate change. The sharp decrease in costs of especially wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) have created opportunities to move from dependency on conventional fossil fuel-based electricity production towards renewable energy sources. Renewables experience around 7% (in 2018) annual growth rate in the electricity production globally and the pace is expected to further increase in the near future. Cuba is no exception in this regard, the government has set an ambitious renewable energy target of 24% RES of electricity production by the year 2030. The article analyses renewable energy trajectories in Isla de la Juventud, Cuba, through different future energy scenarios utilizing EnergyPLAN tool. The goal is to identify the best fit and least cost options in transitioning towards 100% electric power systemin Isla de la Juventud, Cuba. The work is divided into analysis of (1) technical possibilities for five scenarios in the electricity production with a 40% increase of electricity consumption by 2030: Business As Usual (BAU 2030, with the current electric power system (EPS) setup), VISION 2030 (according to the Cuban government plan with 24% RES), Advanced Renewables (ARES, with 50% RES), High Renewables (HiRES, with 70% RES), and Fully Renewables (FullRES, with 100% RES based electricity system) scenarios and (2) defining least cost options for the five scenarios in Isla de la Juventud, Cuba. The results show that high penetration of renewables is technically possible even up to 100% RES although the best technological fit versus least cost options may not favor the 100% RES based systems with the current electric power system (EPS) setup. This is due to realities in access to resources, especially importation of state of the art technological equipment and biofuels, financial and investment resources, as well as the high costs of storage systems. The analysis shows the Cuban government vision of reaching 24% of RES in the electricity production by 2030 can be exceeded even up to 70% RES based systems with similar or even lower costs in the near future in Isla de la Juventud. However, overcoming critical challenges in the economic, political, and legal conditions are crucially important; how will the implementation of huge national capital investments and significant involvement of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) actualize to support achievement of the Cuban government’s 2030 vision?

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Identifying Inconsistencies in Long-Run Development Plans: The Case of Barbados' Vision for Energy Development

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case

Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case

Examining the “Natural Resource Curse” and the Impact of Various Forms of Capital in Small Tourism and Natural Resource Dependent Economies

Towards 100% Renewables by 2030: Transition Alternatives for a Sustainable Electricity Sector in Isla de la Juventud, Cuba

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Identifying Inconsistencies in Long-Run Development Plans: The Case of Barbados' Vision for Energy Development

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case

Long-Range Integrated Development Analysis: The Cuban Isla de la Juventud Study Case

Examining the &ldquo;Natural Resource Curse&rdquo; and the Impact of Various Forms of Capital in Small Tourism and Natural Resource Dependent Economies

Towards 100% Renewables by 2030: Transition Alternatives for a Sustainable Electricity Sector in Isla de la Juventud, Cuba

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Examining the “Natural Resource Curse” and the Impact of Various Forms of Capital in Small Tourism and Natural Resource Dependent Economies