Identifying the Drought Impact Factors and Developing Drought Scenarios using the DSD Model

Abstract

Due to climate change, droughts have become increasingly severe and frequent. Droughts do not simply create water scarcity but also various socio-economic issues. Therefore, it is necessary to manage droughts on the government level through water resource management policies that consider drought conditions. The drought characteristics within each administrative division need to be closely analyzed for effective policy. In this study, a drought impact factor analysis using the DSD model was presented as a method. Through the relationship between various hydrometeorological factors and drought index, the drought impact factor was identified for each area. For South Korea, meteorological factors have a greater impact on droughts than hydrological factors. Identified drought impact factors are analyzed depending on spatio-temporal variability to recognize the features in various aspects of droughts. For the temporal variability, water demand change and severe drought period are considered. Also, for the spatial variability, based on the type of water demand, administrative divisions are grouped into four zones and analyzed accordingly. Finally, a drought scenario based on identified drought impact factor was constructed to present the probable drought conditions in the future. Components of drought scenario reflect the organization of water resources within an area and it combine the each level of components. Through the constructed drought scenarios, it is possible to establish an effective policy for managing water resources considering the drought condition.