If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?

Webb, Stephen W.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-13236-5

Cited by 35 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…The apparent absence of communicating civilizations (Webb 2015) in our planetrich galaxy (Cassan et al 2012) underscores the possibility that such civilizations have short L (Webb 2015) (Bostrom & Cirkovic 2011), potentially due to factors exogenous to the civilization (e.g., nearby supernovae) and/or endogenous to the civilization (e.g., self-destruction).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations

Sotos¹

2019

International Journal of Astrobiology

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The number of people able to end Earth's technical civilization has heretofore been small. Emerging dual-use technologies, such as biotechnology, may give similar power to thousands or millions of individuals. To quantitatively investigate the ramifications of such a marked shift on the survival of both terrestrial and extraterrestrial technical civilizations, this paper presents a two-parameter model for civilizational lifespans, i.e. the quantity L in Drake's equation for the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations. One parameter characterizes the population lethality of a civilization's biotechnology and the other characterizes the civilization's psychosociology. L is demonstrated to be less than the inverse of the product of these two parameters. Using empiric data from PubMed to inform the biotechnology parameter, the model predicts human civilization's median survival time as decades to centuries, even with optimistic psychosociological parameter values, thereby positioning biotechnology as a proximate threat to human civilization. For an ensemble of civilizations having some median calculated survival time, the model predicts that, after 80 times that duration, only one in 10 24 civilizations will survive -a tempo and degree of winnowing compatible with Hanson's "Great Filter." Thus, assuming that civilizations universally develop advanced biotechnology, before they become vigorous interstellar colonizers, the model provides a resolution to the Fermi paradox.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations

Sotos¹

2019

International Journal of Astrobiology

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“…Hence, even if a small fraction of highly advanced species have sent a large number of probes and settled multiple sites, the value of α may become much higher than unity. However, this would bring it into some conflict with the so-called Fermi's paradox, since we would have to explain why none of these probes (or their signals) have been detected thus far (Brin, 1983;Webb, 2015). Nevertheless, since we have not comprehensively surveyed the Solar neighbourhood, the presence of such probes cannot be ruled out definitively (Freitas, 1983;Loeb and Turner, 2012;Haqq-Misra and Kopparapu, 2012).…”

Section: The Relative Likelihood and Its Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Relative Likelihood of Success in the Search for Primitive versus Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life

Lingam

Loeb

2019

Astrobiology

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We estimate the relative likelihood of success in the searches for primitive versus intelligent life on other planets. Taking into account the larger search volume for detectable artificial electromagnetic signals, we conclude that both searches should be performed concurrently, albeit with significantly more funding dedicated to primitive life. Based on the current federal funding allocated to the search for biosignatures, our analysis suggests that the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) may merit a federal funding level of at least $10 million per year, assuming that the average lifetime of technological species exceeds a millennium.

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“…This idea is very powerful. If we extrapolate it to the astrobiological field, we could even say that this is a possible answer to the Fermi's paradox (Webb, 2015), because we could not understand other forms of communication, and as a result we believe that we perceive nothing. Perhaps the means of communication used by an extraterrestrial intelligence is not understandablebut still identifiableby us.…”

Section: Astrobiocentrismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Astrobioethics: a brief discussion from the epistemological, religious and societal dimension

Chon-Torres

2019

International Journal of Astrobiology

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As astrobiology progresses in its quest to discover life on other planets or to put ourselves in another one, so does its moral problematic. Astrobiology is not only part of natural sciences, but also deals with direct aspects of humanities. For this reason, this paper aims to briefly examine astrobioethics from the epistemological, religious and societal dimension. It also deals with different researches in this regard, in order to better understand the state of the art on this topic and that astrobioethics can help us not only on how we should relate with extraterrestrial lifeforms, but even with terrestrials.

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If the Universe Is Teeming with Aliens ... WHERE IS EVERYBODY?

Cited by 35 publications

References 105 publications

Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations

Biotechnology and the lifetime of technical civilizations

Relative Likelihood of Success in the Search for Primitive versus Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life

Astrobioethics: a brief discussion from the epistemological, religious and societal dimension

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