Illicit cigarette trade in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile

Abstract

ObjectiveTo estimate with a rigorous statistical methodology and independent from the tobacco industry the prevalence and consumption of illicit cigarettes in Metropolitan Santiago de Chile, in addition to identifying the variables statistically associated with choosing to smoke illicit cigarettes.MethodsSurveys of 851 smokers who reside in the Metropolitan Santiago were collected using a sampling design that combined a randomisation of high-traffic points and a quota sampling to approximate the smoking population. Photographs of packs along with questions on where they were bought were used to define whether cigarettes were licit or illicit. After this identification, the statistical association between the decision to smoke illicit cigarettes and sociodemographic variables and smoking habits was estimated using probit models.ResultsThe proportion of smokers smoking illicit cigarettes in Metropolitan Santiago was 10.9%. Adjusted by smoking intensity, 16.3% of cigarettes smoked in a month were illicit. Models show that the probability of smoking illicit cigarettes is inversely associated with employment status (ie, employed/inactive/unemployed), and smokers with lower levels of education are more likely to smoke illicit cigarettes. Though smokers’ incomes are not directly measured, both employment status and educational levels are indicative that illicit cigarette consumption is more prevalent among low-income groups.ConclusionsThe proportion of smokers consuming illicit cigarettes estimated in this research is less than half of the widely publicised claims of the tobacco industry. Furthermore, past and present pricing strategies by the tobacco industry indicate that, contrary to public statements, the tobacco industry is not concerned by illicit trade.

Illicit Tobacco in Lithuania: A Cross-Sectional Survey

“…Findings from our study confirmed that, as in the previous studies, older smokers [ 29 , 33 , 38 ], smokers who smoke more intensively [ 3 , 34 , 38 ] and have lower education [ 3 , 19 , 33 , 34 , 38 , 39 ] are more likely to use the illicit cigarettes.…”

“…Evaluation of industry-funded studies conclude that there are some major issues regarding the quality of the estimates, including lack of methodological transparency; problems with data collection, analytical methods and result interpretation; and that they are not peer-reviewed [ 10 , 28 ]. Some studies show that industry-driven data exaggerate the extent of illicit trade [ 3 , 10 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 ]. It appears that our findings support this observation.…”

“…The results of this study may assist policy makers to revise tobacco taxation and approaches for controlling illicit tobacco trade. Another strength of the analysis is that we followed the recent practice [ 3 , 13 , 19 , 29 , 31 , 33 , 34 , 39 , 45 , 46 ] to validate self-reported information with observational pack data by asking to show the latest purchased cigarette pack and inspecting it.…”

“…This is especially valid if smokers are questioned in the household where other family members might be present. Following the example of other studies [ 29 , 33 , 34 ], the latter situations might be avoided if smokers are questioned in the street.…”

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“…In a country with a relatively high average of schooling (in years) it makes more sense to differentiate population by levels of education completed, which may provide a better signal of socioeconomic status than the continuous variable in years. This practice has been followed in other studies [17, 24]. Five categories are considered: 1) primary incomplete, which includes those with no education and some primary education; 2) secondary incomplete, including those with complete primary education, and some secondary education; 3) secondary complete; 4) some college/tertiary education; and 5) college/tertiary education completed.…”