Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Schaap, B.F.; Blom-Zandstra, M.; Hermans, C.M.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Verhagen, A.

doi:10.1007/s10113-011-0205-1

Cited by 53 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…As crops are meant to produce a maximum yield, they often demand high standards in nurturing and water availability and are vulnerable to sudden changes (Semenov and Shewry, 2011;Ma et al, 2015). As already discussed in the Introduction, extreme temperatures can cause substantial losses in crop yields (see, e.g., Schaap et al, 2011;Lesk et al, 2011;Moriondo et al, 2010;Wreford and Adger, 2010). For instance, in 2011 France experienced one of the warmest springs on record which resulted in a 12 % decrease in grain harvest (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012;NOAA, 2012).…”

Section: May-junementioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the midlatitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.

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Section: May-junementioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season

et al. 2017

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“…Semi-quantitative approaches to assess climate impacts and support strategic decisions are also important adaptation measures (e.g. Schaap et al 2011). …”

Section: B Agriculturementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

et al. 2011

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Located in a relatively dry region and characterized by mainly sandy soils, the German Federal State of Brandenburg (surrounding the capital city of Berlin) is especially vulnerable to climate change impacts (e.g. summer droughts) and cascading effects on ecological systems (e.g. decreasing ground water tables, water stress, fire risk, productivity losses) with socioeconomic implications. Furthermore, a complex interplay of unemployment, rural exodus, and an aging population challenges this structurally weak region. We discuss adaptation measures that are either implemented or planned, as well as research into adaptation strategies to climate change for the sectors forestry, 1

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“…In many regions in the world one can observe effects of the changes in climatic conditions or climate variability on crop productivity, farmers' income and land use (Olesen and Bindi 2002;Bradshaw et al 2004;Berry et al 2006;Reidsma et al 2009;Bindi and Olesen 2011). Also for the future of agriculture in a temperate zone such as The Netherlands the potential importance of climate change cannot be ignored, especially regarding effects of weather extremes (Bresser 2005;van Dorland et al 2008;Peltonen-Sainio et al 2010;Schaap et al 2011). However, changes in agricultural policy setting, market responses and technological development were shown to be at least equally important drivers of change for agriculture (Hermans et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

2012

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Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today's farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level.

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Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Cited by 53 publications

References 36 publications

Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season

Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season

Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment

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