Impact of climate‐driven temperature increase on inland aquaculture: Application to land‐based production of common carp ( Cyprinus carpio L.)

Abstract

Climate change will expose the food-producing sector to a range of challenges. Inland aquaculture farms are particularly vulnerable, due to the difficulty in changing their location, and therefore require specific tools to predict the influence of direct and indirect effects on production, environment and economic feasibility. The objective of our study was to apply a simple set of models to produce a set of growth, risk and suitability maps for stakeholders within the common carp sector in Poland, to assist decisionmaking under two different scenarios of climate change: a moderate situation (RCP 4.5) and an extreme situation (RCP 8.5). We used present (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019) and future projections (2080-2099) for water surface temperature based on land surface temperature data from regionally downscaled climate models to draw maps to: (i) show optimal temperature conditions for carp growth, (ii) assess risk of disease outbreak caused by three important common carp pathogens: Cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3), carp oedema virus (CEV) and spring viremia of carp (SVCV) and (iii) predict potential suitability changes of carp farming in Poland. The study identified areas with the most and least favourable temperature conditions for carp growth, as well as those areas with the highest/lowest number of days with suitable temperatures for virus infection.These suitability maps showed the combined effect of direct and indirect effects of climate change projections under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios. The approach applied herein will be of use worldwide for analysing the risks of temperature increase to landbased aquaculture, and the results presented are important for carp farmers in Poland and elsewhere, industry in general, and government stakeholders, to understand the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the triple bottom line of people, planet, and profit.

Estimating Heat Stress Effects on the Sustainability of Traditional Freshwater Pond Fishery Systems under Climate Change

“…Under the conditions in the Czech Republic, the common carp is the most crucial farmed fish species found in productive fisheries. The initial modest increase in water temperature will lead to an increase in carp productivity due to the prolongation of the vegetation season and more rapid fish growth in warmer water [49,50], especially in deeper water bodies [46]. The increased likelihood of long episodes with water temperatures greater than 28 • C means there could be considerable challenges for carp production in Czech ponds.…”

Spatio-Temporal Distribution and Trends of Major Agricultural Crops in Romania Using Interactive Geographic Information System Mapping

“…Throughout the 21st century and presently, the food sector has been exposed to a series of challenges due to climate change [29]. To ensure global food security, it is considered that cereal crops, in particular corn, represent the most important pillar [30].…”

Defining and averting syndemic pathways in aquaculture: a major global food sector

“…The immediate farm environment, farm management practices, and the impact of high-level forcing factors (e.g., climate change) play key roles in aquaculture syndemic pathways (Naylor et al, 2021;Panicz et al, 2022). On farms, sub-optimal water quality causes physiological stresses that can lead to immunological damage to stock, whilst also driving pathogen virulence (Kennedy et al, 2016).…”