Impact of Eastern Redcedar encroachment on water resources in the Nebraska Sandhills

Kishawi, Yaser; Mittelstet, Aaron R.; Gilmore, Troy E.; Roy, Tirthankar; Shrestha, Nawaraj

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159696

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 43 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The climate in the study area is semi-arid with mean annual P 571.04 mm yr −1 and mean temperature of around 9.54 • C for the historical period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019). The study area is covered by 93% pasture, 4.3% wetlands, 1.1% lakes and minimal cropland, urban and forest (Kishawi et al, 2023).…”

Section: Methodology Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ArcSWAT version 2012.10.5.21 was used in this study. Kishawi et al (2023) constructed and calibrated SWAT for the UMLR. For more details on model inputs, calibration and validation, see Kishawi et al (2023).…”

Section: Scenario Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The methodology adopted in this paper is shown in Figure 2. SWAT was calibrated by Kishawi et al (2023) and used in this study to perform simulations under different combinations of climate (Section Climate change scenario) and land use change Therefore, a total of 18 scenarios (blue box) were built to evaluate the simulations of the water balance components in SWAT:…”

Section: Scenario Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The baseline map (0.5% redcedar) was reclassified as a binary image with the presence of redcedar represented by a value of 1 while absence by 0. A morphological filter with size between 3 × 3 m to 7 × 7 m (Haralick et al, 1987) was used to create a hypothetical scenario of different encroachment levels (Kishawi et al, 2023). Dilation is a process where a zero value in a binary image is replaced by 1, simulating the process or encroachment from established redcedar pixels.…”

Section: Land Use Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Applying the Markov-chain and cellular automata model to the encroachment trend estimated redcedar cover would increase from 5,016 km 2 to 14,256 km 2 by 2099. Kishawi et al (2023) used different scenarios that considered redcedar encroachment spatially throughout the watershed with different encroachment levels ranging from 11.9 to 100% of grassland converted to redcedar. The study found, for example, that 16.1% redcedar encroachment in the NSH can reduce D by 12% and increase evapotranspiration and percolation by 0.6 and 3.4%, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The combined impact of redcedar encroachment and climate change on water resources in the Nebraska Sand Hills

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH) is considered a major recharge zone for the High Plains Aquifer in the central United States. The uncontrolled expansion of the eastern redcedar (Juniperus Virginiana) under climate warming is posing threats to surface water and groundwater resources. The combined impact of land use and climate change on the water balance in the Upper Middle Loup River watershed (4,954 km2) in the NSH was evaluated by simulating different combinations of model scenarios using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. A total of 222 climate models were ranked according to the aridity index and three models representing wet, median (most likely), and dry conditions were selected. Additionally, the impacts of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on root water uptake were simulated. Four plausible redcedar encroachment scenarios, namely 0.5% (no encroachment), 2.4, 4.6, and 11.9%, were considered in the numerical simulations. We, therefore, built: i) the historical scenario (2000–2019) with the current climate and redcedar cover leading to baseline results; ii) the most-likely future scenario (2020–2099) with projected climate (50th percentile of aridity index distribution) and redcedar encroachment that was estimated by using a combination of neural network and Markov-chain cellular automata model; iii) 16 future scenarios (2020–2099) with different combinations of extreme climate (5th and 95th percentiles of aridity index distribution) and four hypothetical encroachment scenarios (0.5, 2.4, 4.6, and 11.9%). The most-likely climate projection indicates that a warming pattern will be expected with a 4.1°C increase in average over the 100-year period, and this will be associated with lower-than-normal precipitation (P). Nevertheless, the concurrent increase in temperature and CO2 concentration is likely to induce stomata closure by reducing potential (ETp) and actual (ETa) evapotranspiration losses. Projected P, ETp, ETa, and discharge (D) are expected to decrease by 6, 39, 24, and 2%, respectively, while recharge (R) will likely increase by 27%. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of 16 combined climate and land use scenarios is presented and discussed. The scenario modeling approach presented in this paper can support decision-making by stakeholders for optimal management of water resources.

show abstract

Section: Methodology Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scenario Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scenario Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Land Use Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations