Impact of US policy uncertainty on Mexico: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests

Alam, Rafayet; Istiak, Khandokar

doi:10.1016/j.qref.2019.12.002

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…This evidence of spillover between inflation rate and inflation volatility is suggestive of Cukierman and Meltzer (1986), Ball (1992), Rasulet al (2016) and Shah et al (2017). Studies (Popp and Zhang, 2016;Huang et al, 2018;Charles et al, 2018andCuaresmaet al, 2020Alam and Istiak, 2020) have observed that international uncertainty shock leads to decline in prices and that there is a consistent positive effect of global uncertainty on national inflation rates (Berger et al, 2017), this study, though is a spillover effect analysis, finds that advanced economies economic policy uncertainty spillover to Nigeria's inflation volatility.…”

Section: Discussion Of Findingsmentioning

confidence: 48%

“…Policy induced uncertainty of advanced economies have been studied to have influence on another advanced economies, developing and emerging economies (Balcilar, Demirer, Gupta and Eyden, 2017;Alam, 2015;Alam and Istiak, 2020). These studies find US policy uncertainty to have effects on prices of Euro area, Canada and Mexico, hence it is sufficing to say that policy uncertainty of leading economies has not border as it could spill over to other economies, especially, developing and emerging economies that suffer more severe falls in investment following an exogenous uncertainty shock, take significantly longer to recover, and do not experience a subsequent overshoot in activity (Carriere-Swallow and Cespedes, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spillovers and Connectedness of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Advanced Economies and Nigeria

M¹,

B.²,

Oviku³

2021

theijhss

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This study examines the spillovers and connectedness among economic policy uncertainty of advanced economies, Nigeria's inflation volatility, inflation rate and output growth rate. For this purpose, we adopt time-varying parameter vector auto regression (TVP-VAR) using data between January, 1995 and December, 2019. We observe that there are evidence of bidirectional spillovers among variables. Inflation volatility contributes the highest to the forecast error variance of inflation rate and inflation rate also contribute the highest to the forecast error variance of inflation volatility. We also observe the presence of bidirectional spillover between economic policy uncertainty of US and Europe. We also observe that, when compared with economic policy uncertainty of advanced economies, Nigeria's inflation rate and output growth rate contributes more to the forecast error variance of inflation volatility. Although, among the economic policy uncertainty, Europe economic policy uncertainty contributes the highest to the forecast error variance of Nigeria's inflation volatility. The findings would help policymakers understand that, policy induced uncertainty from advanced economies influences Nigeria's inflation fluctuations and that Nigeria's inflation fluctuation is more sensitive to domestic economic variables.

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Section: Discussion Of Findingsmentioning

confidence: 48%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spillovers and Connectedness of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Advanced Economies and Nigeria

M¹,

B.²,

Oviku³

2021

theijhss

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“…A SVAR model was used to investigate the dynamic impact of risk/uncertainty on the tourism of North Africa. The SVAR is very popular in the risk/uncertainty literature (see Alam and Istiak, 2020; Bloom, 2009; Colombo, 2013; Istiak and Alam, 2019; Istiak and Serletis, 2018, 2020) because it studies the response of a variable to a given one‐time, unexpected change in a risk/uncertainty indicator.…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk, uncertainty and the tourism sector of North Africa

Istiak

2021

African Development Review

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This paper investigates, for the first time, the uncertainty on the tourism of North Africa and uncertainty on the second‐degree effects of the North African tourism sector. The study uses data from 1995 to 2019 and a structural vector autoregression to perform the investigation. The research finds that uncertainties, measured by the uncertainty of Europe, the uncertainty of the Middle East and Central Asia, and the volatility of GDP growth of the Euro area, have significant negative effects on investment and job creation in, as well as the contribution to the GDP of, the North African tourism sector. The paper invents a new proxy of risk, measured by the volatility of crude oil production in North Africa, and finds that this new risk measure has a significant negative impact on the North African tourism sector. The results show that geopolitical risk and the uncertainty of Africa do not significantly affect the North African tourism sector. The paper suggests that policymakers in North Africa subsidize tourism‐related activities and explore new markets to attract tourists during periods of high risk and uncertainty.

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“…Several of these plants (maquiladoras) were built in the 1960s, but their growth and prosperity began to proliferate the border towns, particularly Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez, in the 1970s (Hansen, 1982;Prock, 1983). Today there are more than 3,000 maquiladoras in Mexico, employing approximately one million workers (Alam & Istiak, 2020).…”

Section: Tourism and The Usa-mexico Bordermentioning

confidence: 99%

Borderscapes and tourismscapes: The place of postcards in Mexican border town tourism

Timothy¹

2020

Geogr. Pol.

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Since the early 1900s, Mexico’s northern border towns became important tourism destinations, receiving more foreign tourists than any other areas of Mexico. Historically, postcards followed the development of tourism in the borderlands, depicting unique border-oriented tourismscapes and life in general, and establishing an iconic image of the border as a rowdy, promiscuous and decadent location where Americans could spend their holidays abroad and participate in tourisms of vice. Until the 2000s, tourism in the US-Mexico border zone was overwhelmingly leisure oriented, and the proliferation of postcards illustrated that fact. Today, there are few postcards left and the ones that do remain are less focused on the border itself, as they once were; instead, they focus on the broader community with less emphasis on the borderline. Changes in border tourism from leisure pursuits to medical tourism and alcohol consumption, growing security concerns, and the proliferation of mobile phones and social media have almost entirely eliminated postcard use as a souvenir and marker of regional tourism identity in the US-Mexico borderlands.

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Impact of US policy uncertainty on Mexico: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests

Cited by 21 publications

References 19 publications

Spillovers and Connectedness of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Advanced Economies and Nigeria

Spillovers and Connectedness of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Advanced Economies and Nigeria

Risk, uncertainty and the tourism sector of North Africa

Borderscapes and tourismscapes: The place of postcards in Mexican border town tourism

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