Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin

Chen, Qihui; Chen, Hua; Zhang, Jun; Hou, Yijun; Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Xu, Chong‐Yu

doi:10.1007/s11442-020-1716-9

Cited by 64 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…However, attention should be paid to the fact that these two kinds of land-use types occupy a very small proportion of the whole basin area. The land-use changes in the Jinsha River Basin during the period of 1980-2015 are thoroughly analyzed by Qihui Chen et al [77].…”

Section: Land-use Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change and Land-Use Change on Hydrological Extremes in the Jinsha River Basin

Chen

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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Hydrological extremes are closely related to extreme hydrological events, which have been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards causing great damage to lives and properties. As two of the main factors affecting the hydrological cycle, land-use change and climate change have attracted the attention of many researchers in recent years. However, there are few studies that comprehensively consider the impacts of land-use change and climate change on hydrological extremes, and few researchers have made a quantitative distinction between them. Regarding this problem, this study aims to quantitatively distinguish the effects of land-use change and climate change on hydrological extremes during the past half century using the method of scenarios simulation with the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). Furthermore, the variations of hydrological extremes are forecast under future scenarios by incorporating the downscaled climate simulations from several representative general circulation models (GCMs). Results show that: (1) respectively rising and declining risks of floods and droughts are detected during 1960–2017. The land use changed little during 1980–2015, except for the water body and building land. (2) The SWAT model possesses better simulation effects on high flows compared with low flows. Besides, the downscaled GCM data can simulate the mean values of runoff well, and acceptable simulation effects are achieved for the extreme runoff indicators, with the exception of frequency and durations of floods and extreme low flows. (3) During the period 1970–2017, the land-use change exerts little impact on runoff extremes, while climate change is one of the main factors leading to changes in extreme hydrological situation. (4) In the context of global climate change, the indicators of 3-day max and 3-day min runoff will probably increase in the near future (2021–2050) compared with the historical period (1970–2005). This research helps us to better meet the challenge of probably increased flood risks by providing references to the decision making of prevention and mitigation measures, and thus possesses significant social and economic value.

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Section: Land-use Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change and Land-Use Change on Hydrological Extremes in the Jinsha River Basin

Chen

Wang

et al. 2019

Water

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“…Climate change and LUCC change have essential impacts on precipitation and runoff processes [14,15]. In recent years, a great deal of research has been carried out in China on runoff prediction and attribution analysis in changeable environments [16,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution Assessment and Prediction of Runoff Change in the Han River Basin, China

Wei

Yuan

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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The ecological environment and water resources of the Han River Basin (HRB) are incredibly susceptible to global warming. Naturally, the analysis of future runoff in HRB is believed to offer a theoretical basis for water resources management and ecological protection in HRB. The purpose of this study is to investigate and forecast the effects of climate change and land use change on runoff in the HRB. This study uses CMIP6 data to simulate three future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) for changes in precipitation and temperature, a CA-Markov model to simulate future land use change scenarios, and the Budyko framework to predict future runoff changes. The results show that: (1) Between 1974 and 2014, annual runoff (R) and annual precipitation (P) in the HRB decline not so significantly with a rate of 1.3673 mm/a and 1.2709 mm/a, while maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) and potential evapotranspiration (E0) show a non-significantly increasing trend with 0.0296 °C/a, 0.0204 °C/a and 1.3313 mm/a, respectively. Precipitation is considered as main contributor to the decline in Han River runoff, accounting for 54.1%. (2) In the HRB, overall precipitation and temperature are estimated to rise in the coming years, with all other hydrological variables. The comparison of precipitation rise under each scenario is as follows: SSP126 scenario > SSP585 scenario > SSP245 scenario. The comparison of the temperature increase under each scenario is as follows: SSP585 scenario > SSP245 scenario > SSP126 scenario. (3) In the HRB, farmland and grassland land will continue to decline in the future. The amount of forest acreage is projected to decline but not so significantly. (4) The future runoff of the HRB shows an increasing trend, and the future runoff varies in different scenarios and periods. Under the land use scenarios of maintaining LUCC1992–2014 and LUCC2040 and LUCC2060, the R change rates in 2015–2040 are 8.27–25.47% and −8.04–19.35%, respectively, and the R in 2040–2060 are 2.09–13.66% and 19.35–31.52%. At the same time, it is very likely to overestimate the future runoff of the HRB without considering the changes in the land use data of the underlying surface in the future.

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“…The changes in LU and CC directly and significantly affect hydrological processes, namely evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater recharge, and streamflow (Chen et al, 2020;Lu et al, 2015;Shrestha et al, 2018;Staal et al, 2020;Venkatesh & Ramesh, 2018). A study by Ghaffari et al (2010) in Northwest Iran reported a significant association between changes in LU and its effect on hydrology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These changes were triggered by a 0.14% rise in the urban landscape and a reduction in natural forests by 0.7%. It may be noted from earlier studies that most of the research is carried out on past changes to LULC and very few researches studied future/projected LULC changes (Chen et al, 2020;Roy & Inamdar, 2019;Sharannya et al, 2018). A perspective toward future LULC is essential for developing 'what-if' scenarios and can support LU planning and policy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of land use and climate change on water scarcity in rivers of the Western Ghats of India

Sharannya

Venkatesh

Mudbhatkal

et al. 2021

Environ Monit Assess

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CC on regional hydrology, a scenario approach was adopted and three scenarios depicting near-future (2006-2040), mid-future (2041-2070), and farfuture (2071-2100) based on climate were established. The present rate of LU change indicated a reduction in forest cover by 20% and an increase in urbanized areas by 9.5% between 1988 and 2016. It was estimated that forest cover in the catchments may be expected to halve compared to the presentday LU (55% in 2016 to 23% in 2075), along with large-scale conversion to agricultural lands (13.5% in 2016 to 49.5% in 2075). As a result of changes to LU and forecasted climate, it was found that rivers in the Western Ghats of India might face scarcity of fresh water in the next two decades until the year 2040. However, because of large-scale LU conversion toward the year 2050, streamflow in rivers might increase as high as 70.94% at certain times of the year. Although an increase in streamflow is perceived favorable, the streamflow changes during summer and winter may be expected to affect the cropping calendar and crop yield. The changes to streamflow were also linked to a 4.2% increase in ecologically sensitive wetlands of the Aghanashini river catchment.

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Impacts of climate change and LULC change on runoff in the Jinsha River Basin

Cited by 64 publications

References 36 publications

Impacts of Climate Change and Land-Use Change on Hydrological Extremes in the Jinsha River Basin

Impacts of Climate Change and Land-Use Change on Hydrological Extremes in the Jinsha River Basin

Attribution Assessment and Prediction of Runoff Change in the Han River Basin, China

Effects of land use and climate change on water scarcity in rivers of the Western Ghats of India

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