Impacts of future climate and land use change on water yield in a semiarid basin in Iran

Chelan, Bagher Shirmohammadi; Malekian, Arash; Salajegh, Ali; Taheri, Bahram; Azarnivand, H; Malek, Žiga; Verburg, Peter H.

doi:10.1002/ldr.3554

Cited by 61 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Although the findings emphasize the driving effect of precipitation, the contribution of other factors such as actual evapotranspiration to spatial differentiation of water yield cannot be denied. Similarly, Shirmohammadi found that the prediction result on the future water yield in the Urmia lake region was mainly sensitive to precipitation and evapotranspiration, especially precipitation [16]. Therefore, predicting the change of precipitation can be used to reveal the variation trend of water yield.…”

Section: Drivers Of Changes In Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Under the combined action of natural factors and human activities, ecosystem services showed significant spatial differences. The main factors affecting ecosystem services are climate factors and land use factors [16,66]. In terms of spatial distribution, water yield is closely related to precipitation and actual evapotranspiration.…”

Section: Drivers Of Changes In Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Urmia lake region, land use exhibited considerable impact on the ecosystem services [16]. However, in the TSTB, land use changes are less pronounced and climate impacts may exceed these easily.…”

Section: Drivers Of Changes In Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change and land use are considered to be two main factors affecting ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies [12][13][14]. In recent years, ecosystem services have been seriously threatened by climate change and socioeconomic development [15][16][17]. Changing trends in land use pattern will pose a serious threat to future ecological security.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Wang

Qiao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

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Section: Drivers Of Changes In Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Drivers Of Changes In Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Drivers Of Changes In Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Wang

Qiao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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show abstract

“…The water yield module of the InVEST model, according to the water balance formula, ignores the interactive flow between the surface and groundwater and subtracts the annual actual evapotranspiration from the annual precipitation to obtain the regional annual water yield. At the same time, the model determines the contribution of each landscape to the water yield (Shirmohammadi et al 2020):…”

Section: Calculating Water Yield In the Invest Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of water yield service of Lianshui River Basin in China based on ecosystem services flow model

Mao

2021

Water Supply

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Water security assessment is very important to social development. However, most studies only focus on the status quo of water security in a static state and ignore the flow characteristics of water resources into the water security assessment. This paper integrates multi-source data to construct a water supply and service supply-demand balance and spatial flow model in the Lianshui River Basin, simulates the spatial pattern of the service flow of the aquatic water ecosystem in the Lianshui River Basin from 1990 to 2018, and quantifies the service flow. Results show that (1) From 1990 to 2018, the water supply in the Lianshui River Basin first decreased, then increased, and finally decreased. Water yield was the highest in 2010 and lowest in 2000. (2) Water demand increased year by year, and the amount of area with a poor water resource security index increased, indicating that water security was deteriorating. (3) The four main beneficiary areas in the basin are the urban area of Lianyuan City, the county seat of Shuangfeng County, the Louxing District of Loudi City, and the urban area of Xiangxiang City and nearby towns. The service flow showed the same changing trend as the water yield. In 2018, the water resource gap in the beneficiary area was as high as 4.49 billion m3. Local governments should actively build a water-saving society, improve the efficiency of industrial and agricultural water-saving and residents' awareness of water-saving, and improve the water resources in the river basin. The research can provide a scientific basis for realizing the sustainable development of water resources in the Lianshui River Basin and improving the ecological compensation mechanism, and can also provide references for water resources management in other river basins.

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InVEST model analysis of the impacts of land use change on landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Xiaolangdi Reservoir area of the Yellow River basin, China

Zhao

Meng

et al. 2022

Land Degrad Dev

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Changes in land use impact the landscape pattern and habitat quality (LPHQ) of ecosystems. Since 1999, the Grain‐for‐Green Program (GGP) has brought dramatic changes in land use in Western China. Although many studies have reported positive contributions of the GGP to sediment reduction, the effects of the GGP on LPHQ remain unclear. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of LPHQ in the Xiaolangdi Reservoir Area in China (XRAC) before and after GGP implementation (in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020) using the InVEST habitat quality model. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the main land use changes in the XRAC were a 34.97% increase in forestland and a 37.56% decrease in farmland. The landscape pattern showed decreased fragmentation and tended toward aggregation, and forestland became the dominant land use type. (2) Habitat quality in the XRAC improved from 0.63 to 0.91 between 1990 and 2020. High‐quality habitat (0.80–1) was observed in 88.24% of the XRAC in 2020. The spatial distribution of habitat degradation decreased overall, with some localized increases; areas with high levels of habitat degradation shrank and aggregated with the concentration of human activities. (3) The spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality was influenced by both natural factors and human activities; the short‐term improvement in habitat quality in the XRAC was significantly related to the increase in forestland area, decrease in farmland area, and increase in vegetation coverage. Our results provide evidence for assessing the ecological benefit of the GGP in the Yellow River basin.

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Impacts of future climate and land use change on water yield in a semiarid basin in Iran

Cited by 61 publications

References 45 publications

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Analysis of water yield service of Lianshui River Basin in China based on ecosystem services flow model

InVEST model analysis of the impacts of land use change on landscape pattern and habitat quality in the Xiaolangdi Reservoir area of the Yellow River basin, China

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