Impacts of Renewable Energy Policies on CO2 Emissions Reduction and Energy Security Using System Dynamics: The Case of Small-Scale Sector in Jordan

Abstract

Renewable energy policies, such as feed-in-tariffs (FiTs) and subsidy policies, have been reported effective in enhancing the social acceptability to install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Nevertheless, a quantitative assessment approach is still needed to measure the extent to which these policies can achieve the clean energy goals and support the decision-making process. This study, therefore, develops system dynamics models to assess the impacts of PV policies on the social acceptability to install PV systems, energy security, and CO2 emission reduction in the small-scale sector in Jordan. Simulation was then conducted from the period 2016 to 2050. The results for the FiTs (subsidy) policies showed that the predicted accumulated PV installations, power generated, and CO2 emission reductions will reach 67.125 (88.38) Gigawatt (GW), 115.853 (152.588) Terra Wh (TWh), and 74.49 (98.114) million tons CO2, respectively. To achieve these goals, the required cumulative FiTs and subsidy policy costs are 2.2 and 7.59 billion USD, respectively. Sensitivity analyses followed to determine the optimal FiTs price and subsidy proportion that optimize PV goals under uncertainty. In conclusion, the developed models are found valuable tools for measuring the impacts of energy policies on PV goals and thereby provide great input information to the decision-making processes when selecting the appropriate energy policies and actions. In the end, adopting FiTs and/or subsidy policies, Jordan is expected to achieve a high level of clean energy security by 2050, which enhances energy capabilities and mitigates global warming. Future research will examine the factors that affect social acceptability for PV systems.

Architectural, Civil, and Infrastructure Engineering in View of Sustainability: Editor’s Comment

“…Fifth, all articles fit into the basic analysis of EST, i.e., economic, social, and technological dimensions. Nonetheless, in this SI, there is an extension to PEST, i.e., the political dimension, which is clearly visible in two articles [4,15]. The development of the design level can be reduced to the following chain: "from conventional practice, green buildings, sustainable design (degenerating-reducing impact) to restorative design, regenerative design".…”

“…International works have also appeared (c.f. [4,9,11,13]. This tendency should be preserved for the sake of research dedicated to sustainability.…”

“…This is the result of cooperation between power engineers and architects. Renewable energy policies are presented by Al-Refaie & Lepkova [4]. The authors highlight energy costs and social acceptability.…”

“…Studies of the village landscape pattern, local microclimate, and adaptability of inhabitants are supported by the analysis of morphological parameters and the use of Rhino modelling platform and Grasshopper software. The issue of air quality management in cities is the domain of the research completed by the team of Badach et al [4]. The authors propose Integrated Urban Planning.…”

Research on Optimal Configuration of Landscape Storage in Public Buildings Based on Improved NSGA-II

“…In addition, because of the world's current electricity mix, fossil fuels such as coal will further exacerbate environmental problems. Constructing a multi-source system in public buildings with access to various renewable energies can not only reduce the consumption of fossil energy, but also improve the surrounding environment, thus promoting the sustainable development of public buildings and essentially alleviating the greenhouse effect encountered by the world [2].…”