Implementing MCDA to determine eligibility for pardon

Abstract

Countries celebrating festive national events sometimes declare a wide-scale pardon of prisoners, based on certain criteria. This paper presents an effective method for producing a list of prisoners eligible for early release by utilizing a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The following criteria were used: gender, age, severity of crime, proportion of sentence already served, and behavior in the last three years. Criteria weights were calculated using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), based on data provided by the authorities. The model produced clear and unbiased results, offering policymakers a practical and user-friendly decision-making tool. It was implemented on a list of 1,500 candidates for early release through a wide-ranging amnesty, and several hundred of them achieved scores that made them eligible for a pardon.