Implications of Sea-Level Rise for Estonia

Kont, Are; Jaagus, Jaak; Aunap, Raivo; Ratas, Urve; Rivis, Reimo

doi:10.2112/07a-0015.1

Cited by 39 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…If this trend continues, coastal populations will fall (e.g. Kont et al 2008). On the other hand, immigration (or an increase in fertility) may offset this trend.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Hinkel

Nicholls

Vafeidis

et al. 2010

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

145

102

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This paper applies the DIVA model to assess the risk of and adaptation to sealevel rise for the European Union in the 21st century under the A2 and B1 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For each scenario, impacts are estimated without and with adaptation in the form of increasing dike heights and nourishing beaches. Before 2050, the level of impacts is primarily determined by socio-economic development. In 2100 and assuming no adaptation, 780×10 3 people/year are estimated to be affected by coastal flooding under A2 and 200×10 3 people/year under B1. The total monetary damage caused by flooding, salinity intrusion, land erosion and migration is projected to be about US$ 17×10 9 under both scenarios in 2100; damage costs relative to GDP are highest for the Netherlands (0.3% of GDP under A2). Adaptation reduces the number of people flooded by factors of 110 to 288 and total damage costs by factors of 7 to 9. In 2100 adaptation costs are projected to be US$ 3.5×10 9 under A2 and 2.6×10 9 under B1; adaptation costs relative to GDP are highest for Estonia (0.16% under A2) and Ireland (0.05% under A2). These results suggest that adaptation measures to sea-level rise are beneficial and affordable, and will be widely applied throughout the European Union.

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“…If this trend continues, coastal populations will fall (e.g. Kont et al 2008). On the other hand, immigration (or an increase in fertility) may offset this trend.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Hinkel

Nicholls

Vafeidis

et al. 2010

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

145

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Possible impacts from higher temperatures, such as damage to rail and road surfaces are conceivable, but according to the IPCC (2007), among all possible impacts on transportation, the greatest in terms of cost concerns flooding. An ongoing rise in sea level would first affect roads and railways situated near the coastline of the southern Baltic Sea where the topography is low and flat, as in Gdansk (Schmidt- or Malmö (City of Malmö 2011), but also in Tallin and Pärnu (for an 0.85-to 0.95-m sea-level rise in Pärnu; Kont et al 2008), although Klein and Staudt (2006) stated that most roads and railways were safe in the 'high case' sea-level rise scenario for 2071-2100 (+1.04 m) in Pärnu (IPCC 2007 projected lower rises, see also Chap. 14).…”

Section: Transport Infrastructure and Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-economic Impacts—Urban Complexes

Deppisch

Juhola

Janßen

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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This chapter examines observed and potential future climate change impacts on socioeconomic fields concerning urban complexes in the Baltic Sea basin. This is based on the literature review that focused mainly on English publications on climate change impacts, but included some publications in other languages on adaptation. In the Baltic Sea basin, there appears to be an imbalance between cities and towns that have been well studied with reference to climate change impacts, and cities or even regions for which there is hardly any published literature. For those publications that do exist, most concern the impact of a specific climate change effect (temperature rise, extreme events, sea-level rise) on a particular socioeconomic field of an urban complex. The results of the literature review indicate that urban complexes in the Baltic Sea catchment are likely to experience climate change impacts within wide-ranging contexts: from urban services and technical infrastructure, to buildings and settlement structures and to the urban economy or population. Impacts will differ depending on the location of the urban complex: northern versus southern and coastal versus inland. IntroductionThis chapter examines observed and potential future climate change impacts on socio-economic fields concerning urban complexes. Urban complexes are human-dominated settlements with relatively higher population density than rural settlements. The term comprises cities and towns. Urban complexes are further characterised by high concentrations of buildings and built-up areas with consequent soil sealing, high concentrations of people and infrastructure as well as specific economic and cultural roles and activities. These factors render urban complexes particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts (Hunt and Watkiss 2011). As every urban complex is characterised by a specific mix of social, ecological and economic interdependencies and its own settlement and building structure, it is difficult to generalise on scientific findings concerning urban complexes. Moreover, in the Baltic Sea basin, there seems to be an imbalance between cities and towns that have been well studied with reference to climate change impacts, and cities or even regions for which there is hardly any published literature. For those publications that do exist, most concern the impact of a specific climate change effect (temperature rise, extreme events, sea-level rise) on a particular socioeconomic field of an urban complex. Systematic case studies are available but are mostly on the impacts of climate on human health (Analitis et al.

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“…Over large areas of formerly glaciated coastlines the continued decline in isostatic land uplift is bringing many areas within the range of sea-level rise (Smith et al, 2000). For the Baltic and Arctic coasts, sea-level rise projections under some SRES scenarios indicate an increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion after 2050 (Johansson et al, 2004;Meier et al, 2004Meier et al, , 2006Kont et al, 2007). In areas of coastal subsidence or high tectonic activity, as in the low tidal range Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, climate-related sea-level rise could significantly increase potential damage from storm surges and tsunamis (Gregory et al, 2001).…”

Section: Coastal and Marine Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A klímaváltozás emberi jogi aspektusai

Kondorosi¹

2013

JEL-KÉP

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Implications of Sea-Level Rise for Estonia

Cited by 39 publications

References 9 publications

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Socio-economic Impacts—Urban Complexes

A klímaváltozás emberi jogi aspektusai

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