Import substitution today: analysis methodology

Abstract

Subject. The context determining state regulatory measures with regard to foreign trade depends on a number of economic, political, social, and legal factors. At the moment, they are becoming the basis for the state economic policy, which is defined as an import substitution policy (with regard to international economic ties). Objectives. The purpose of our study was to substantiate the methodological approach to the analysis of the causes and consequences of the current import substitution policy in Russia, and the way the state affected the results. Methodology. Our hypothesis is that the import substitution processes taking place in Russia since the late 1990s are a reaction of the economic system (including the state foreign economic policy) to external shocks rather than a deliberate policy of the government aimed at promoting ineffective industries of the national economy competing with foreign imports on the national market. In our study, we used the method of empirical observations based on analytical, expert, and statistical data. Results. The study substantiates the hypothesis that the import substitution policy conducted in Russia since the 1990s is a political and economic reaction to external shocks of various origin and nature, which caused an imbalance in the micro- and macroeconomic relationships of the country. The article considers the specific features of three stages of import substitution in Russia: 1998-2003, 2014-2021, and from 2022 until now. Discussion. The obtained results are compared with the conclusions made by researchers who analysed the import substitution processes in Russia in the said time periods using the neoclassical approach and made forecasts as to the prospects of technological development. Conclusions. The conducted analysis allowed us to make a conclusion that import substitution can be defined as a result of external shocks, i.e. the impact of external factors (economic, political, etc.) on the relationships established within the economic system resulting in the destruction of such relationships. Essential aspects of import substitution include the content aspect, the role of the state, the role of the global market, the conditions created for import substitution, and the technological aspect. We also analysed the specifics of import substitution in Russia during various stages, from 1998 up to the present moment.