Importance measures for performance shaping factors of human reliability analysis

Abstract

The crew of a nuclear-powered submarine under development in Brasil plays an important role in its safety. For this reason, crew members must be trained in procedures against undesired events. However, information that would help to accurately decrease human error probability (HEP) on board nuclear-powered submarines is not available in the literature. Therefore, a methodology is required to obtain this information. This study introduces importance measures to evaluate the contribution of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and their levels to HEP. Importance measures Fussell-Vesely, risk reduction worth, risk achievement worth, and Birnbaum importance, commonly used in probabilistic safety assessment, are introduced to identify PSFs and PSF levels that contribute the most to HEP. The proposed approach is focused on identifying HEP's main contributors, oriented toward decision-making.The methodology uses the PSFs established in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis method and a Bayesian network to quantify HEP. Moreover, the results of an application case demonstrate the method's effectiveness in integrating expert opinions into representative values of HEP and in identifying critical PSFs and PSF levels that should be the object of the decision-making process to improve human performance.