Improved modelling of ship SO2 emissions—a fuel-based approach

Endresen, Øyvind; Bakke, Joachim; Sørgård, Eirik; Berglen, Tore Flatlandsmo; Holmvang, Per

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.02.041

Cited by 72 publications

(35 citation statements)

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“…The emission factor for coal is calculated by combining the molecular weight ratio of CO 2 to C (44/12), with 0.704 tonnes C/tonne fuel [ Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers ( SNAME ), 1983]. The sulphur content varies over time, as pointed out by Endresen et al [2005]. We have assumed a global average of 2.5% sulphur for marine oils up to 1970.…”

Section: Fuel‐based Emissions Inventory: 1925–2002mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is an ongoing scientific debate regarding the reliability of marine bunker sale statistics to be used for estimates of fuel‐based ship emissions [ Corbett and Koehler , 2003, 2004; Eyring et al , 2005; Endresen et al , 2003, 2004, 2005]. Activity‐based estimates reported by Corbett and Koehler [2003] and Eyring et al [2005] are significantly higher compared to historical sales data covering the last decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

Endresen¹,

Sørgård²,

Behrens³

et al. 2007

J. Geophys. Res.

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225

156

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[1] Shipping activity has increased considerably over the last century and currently represents a significant contribution to the global emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Despite this, information about the historical development of fuel consumption and emissions is generally limited, with little data published pre-1950 and large deviations reported for estimates covering the last 3 decades. To better understand the historical development in ship emissions and the uncertainties associated with the estimates, we present fuel-based CO 2 and SO 2 emission inventories from 1925 up to 2002 and activity-based estimates from 1970 up to 2000. The global CO 2 emissions from ships in 1925 have been estimated to 229 Tg (CO 2 ), growing to about 634 Tg (CO 2 ) in 2002. The corresponding SO 2 emissions are about 2.5 Tg (SO 2 ) and 8.5 Tg (SO 2 ), respectively. Our activity-based estimates of fuel consumption from 1970 to 2000, covering all oceangoing civil ships above or equal to 100 gross tonnage (GT), are lower compared to previous activity-based studies. We have applied a more detailed model approach, which includes variation in the demand for sea transport, as well as operational and technological changes of the past. This study concludes that the main reason for the large deviations found in reported inventories is the applied number of days at sea. Moreover, our modeling indicates that the ship size and the degree of utilization of the fleet, combined with the shift to diesel engines, have been the major factors determining yearly fuel consumption. Interestingly, the model results from around 1973 suggest that the fleet growth is not necessarily followed by increased fuel consumption, as technical and operational characteristics have changed. Results from this study indicate that reported sales over the last 3 decades seems not to be significantly underreported as previous simplified activity-based studies have suggested. The results confirm our previously reported modeling estimates for year 2000. Previous activity-based studies have not considered ships less than 100 GT (e.g., today some 1.3 million fishing vessels), and we suggest that this fleet could account for an important part of the total fuel consumption ($10%).Citation: Endresen, Ø., E. Sørgård, H. L. Behrens, P. O. Brett, and I. S. A. Isaksen (2007), A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions,

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Section: Fuel‐based Emissions Inventory: 1925–2002mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

Endresen¹,

Sørgård²,

Behrens³

et al. 2007

J. Geophys. Res.

Self Cite

225

156

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The RF from shipping in the Arctic is −5.8 mW m −2 (60-90 • N) and the first indirect aerosol effect −19 mW m −2 , see Table 2. SO 2 emissions from shipping are high because of the high average sulphur content in marine heavy fuels used by most ocean-going ships (Endresen et al, 2005). For some summer months, changes in both oxidant levels and SO 2 emissions lead to net burden changes that are close to zero.…”

Section: Sulphurmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-lived climate forcers from current shipping and petroleum activities in the Arctic

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) in the Arctic region are expected to increase, notably from shipping and petroleum extraction. We here discuss changes in atmospheric SLCF concentrations and resulting radiative forcing (RF) from present day shipping and petroleum activities in the Arctic. The three-dimensional chemistry transport OsloCTM2 and a state of the art radiative forcing model are used, based on a coherent dataset of present day Arctic emissions. We find that the net RF of SLCF of shipping in the Arctic region is negative, mainly due to the direct and indirect RF effects of sulphate emissions, while the net RF of SLCF of petroleum extraction is positive, mainly due to the effects of black carbon aerosols in the air and deposited on snow. Strong seasonal variations of the sensitivities to emissions are found. In terms of annual mean values we find that the Arctic sensitivities to SLCF is similar to global average sensitivities. One exception to this is the stronger snow/ice albedo effect from BC emissions.

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“…The inventories for SO 2 , BC and OC emitted from shipping used for this study are based upon the work of Endresen et al (2007Endresen et al ( , 2005. Emissions from shipping are prescribed annually.…”

Section: Aerosols and So 2 Emitted From Ships Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct radiative effect of aerosols emitted by transport: from road, shipping and aviation

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Aerosols and their precursors are emitted abundantly by transport activities. Transportation constitutes one of the fastest growing activities and its growth is predicted to increase significantly in the future. Previous studies have estimated the aerosol direct radiative forcing from one transport sub-sector, but only one study to our knowledge estimated the range of radiative forcing from the main aerosol components (sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon) for the whole transportation sector. In this study, we compare results from two different chemical transport models and three radiation codes under different hypothesis of mixing: internal and external mixing using emission inventories for the year 2000. The main results from this study consist of a positive direct radiative forcing for aerosols emitted by road traffic of +20±11 mW m −2 for an externally mixed aerosol, and of +32±13 mW m −2 when BC is internally mixed. These direct radiative forcings are much higher than the previously published estimate of +3±11 mW m −2 . For transport activities from shipping, the net direct aerosol radiative forcing is negative. This forcing is dominated by the contribution of the sulphate. For both an external and an internal mixture, the radiative forcing from shipping is estimated at −26±4 mW m −2 . These estimates are in very good agreement with the range of a previously published one (from −46 to −13 mW m −2 ) but with a much narrower range. By contrast, the direct aerosol forcing from aviation is estimated to be small, and in the range −0.9 to +0.3 mW m −2 .

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Improved modelling of ship SO2 emissions—a fuel-based approach

Cited by 72 publications

References 10 publications

A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

Short-lived climate forcers from current shipping and petroleum activities in the Arctic

Direct radiative effect of aerosols emitted by transport: from road, shipping and aviation

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