Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks

Abstract

Many of the models used to track, forecast, and inform the response to epidemics such as COVID-19 assume that everyone has an equal chance of encountering those who are infected with a disease. But this assumption does not reflect the fact that individuals interact mostly within much narrower groups. We argue that incorporating a network perspective, which accounts for patterns of real-world interactions, into epidemiological models provides useful insights into the spread of infectious diseases.

Individual-based Markov model of virus diffusion: Comparison with COVID-19 incubation period, serial interval and regional time series

“…All of these papers are based on the fundamental SIR model introduced by Kermack and McKendrick in [28]. Other examples are network models that can be deterministic or stochastic; some examples can be found in [27], [14], [39], [42]; see also [1], [15], [21] for other approaches.…”

Tam ve Kısmi Kapanma Stratejilerinin COVID-19 Salgını Üzerinden Karşılaştırılması

“…Bireylerin çevreleriyle olan yakın etkileşimlerini ağ temelli (network) modeller başarıyla temsil edebilmektedir [10]. Ağ temelli modeller, işgücü piyasasının [11], uluslararası ticaretin [12], finansal piyasaların [13] modellenmesinde sıklıkla kullanılmaktadır. Virüs geçişlerinin örüntüsüne uygun yapısından dolayı, ağ temelli modelleme salgın modellemesi için de kullanılabilir.…”

Okul/İş Yeri Kapatılmasının COVID-19 Kaynaklı Vaka Sayılarına Etkisi

“…Network models have successfully been employed in many fields to study phenomena for which interrelationships matter (Craig et al, 2020). In economics, these include job referrals in labour markets (Calvó-Armengol and Jackson, 2007), patterns of international trade (Chaney, 2014), and contagion in financial markets (Elliott, Golub, and Jackson, 2014).…”

“…Figure 2. Illustration of social interactions in compartmental models (on the left) and network models (on the right) (Craig et al, 2020) Main purpose of the study is to examine the effect of school/workplace closures, an intervention strategy many governments have applied to stop or slow down spread of COVID-19 nowadays. We construct a network SIR model where people can interact with others in their homes, schools, and workplaces daily.…”