Improving the system of indicators for assessing the epidemiological situation and strengthening restrictive measures in the conditions of adaptive quarantine caused by the spread of COVID-19

Abstract

The article deals with the problem of the effectiveness of the state response to challenges to the health care system due to the spread of infection caused by SARS-CoV-2. The authors have carried out an analysis of international economic investigations on its impact on the socio-economic system in general and the health care system in particular. It was found that the vast majority of them examine the impact of various factors on the spread of coronavirus or its effects on individual segments or the economic system as a whole, the response of the decision-making system to the spread of infection, or model different scenarios for health system challenges. However, investigations do not address what criteria should be applied when imposing restrictive measures or what changes need to be done to the threat assessment system to minimize the burden on the health care system. Therefore, the authors analyzed the current national indicators system used to identify regions with a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. Based on a retrospective analysis of previous waves of coronavirus spread in Ukraine and the introduction of quarantine restrictions in this regard, it was found that the decision to strengthen quarantine restrictions was delayed. This overloaded the medical system and led to overcrowding, which could have been avoided if quarantine had been introduced early. It is revealed what changes in the assessment methodology need to be made in order to strengthen the quarantine restrictions in time. An assessment of the filling of the hospital stock under the condition of timely introduction of quarantine on the example of the city of Kyiv was carried out and the cost of redundant hospitalizations was estimated. Changes in the current methodology for estimating regions with a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 are proposed, which include the introduction of additional indicators and quantitative changes for existing indicators.