Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Worlds

Abstract

An increase in short duration precipitation extremes poses challenges for storm water design in rapidly urbanizing India. The recent Paris Agreement aims to limit the global mean temperature (GMT) below 1.5 °C (and possibly below 2.0 °C) from the preindustrial level. However, the changes in subdaily precipitation extremes in India remain unrecognized under the 1.5‐ and 2.0‐°C temperature targets. Here using observations and projections of the subdaily precipitation, we show that a majority (11 out of 15) of General Circulation Models underestimate 3‐hourly precipitation extremes and overestimate the relationship between 3‐hourly precipitation extremes and GMT (scaling) in India. A rise of 1.5 (2.0 °C) in GMT from the preindustrial level is projected to cause 20% (25%) increase in 3‐hourly precipitation maxima at 100‐year return period under the stationary condition, which can further rise by 10% under the nonstationary condition. Projected warming results in a much faster (almost twice) increase in 3‐hourly precipitation maxima than 24‐hourly 100‐year precipitation maxima. Moreover, 3‐hourly 100‐year precipitation maxima are projected to increase significantly at 78 locations (out of 89) if GMT increases from 1.5 to 2.0 °C from the preindustrial level. Our findings have implications for urban storm water designs in India.

Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

“…Moreover, long-range moisture transports patterns (Roxy et al, 2017) associated with seasonality may affect changes in extreme precipitation as compared to the estimated changes by thermodynamic scaling. Additionally, subdaily precipitation extremes in general show higher positive scaling than daily precipitation extremes with both DPT and SAT (Ali & Mishra, 2017, 2018bBlenkinsop et al, 2015;Mishra et al, 2012;Wasko et al, 2018). Additionally, subdaily precipitation extremes in general show higher positive scaling than daily precipitation extremes with both DPT and SAT (Ali & Mishra, 2017, 2018bBlenkinsop et al, 2015;Mishra et al, 2012;Wasko et al, 2018).…”

“…Therefore, the contribution from thermodynamic (localized) and dynamic (large scale) factor (Ali & Mishra, 2018a) needs to be estimated for the different climate zone. Additionally, subdaily precipitation extremes in general show higher positive scaling than daily precipitation extremes with both DPT and SAT (Ali & Mishra, 2017, 2018bBlenkinsop et al, 2015;Mishra et al, 2012;Wasko et al, 2018). We therefore recommend that although DPT scaling may provide an indication of thermodynamically driven future changes in precipitation extremes, the effects of seasonality, changes to humidity, and large-scale atmospheric circulation must be carefully evaluated to produce robust projections for different climatic regions.…”

Research and Education in India on Climate Change

“…IIT Kanpur and IIT Delhi(CAS) researchers together with those from Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hyderabad published a paper on: Aerosol-induced intensification of cooling effect of clouds during the Indian summer monsoon 35 , while IIT Gandhinagar researchers have published an article on Drought and famine in India 1870-2016 36 and Increase in subdaily precipitation extremes in India under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming worlds 37 and Strong influence of irrigation on water budget and land surface temperature in Indian subcontinental river basins 38 . IIT Bhubaneshwar (School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences) researchers have published a study on: Seasonal evolution of oceanic upper layer processes in the northern Bay of Bengal following a single Argo float 39 .…”

Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia

“…; Mishra et al. ; Ali and Mishra ). Urban centers are the focal point of climate change adaptation due to rapidly changing conditions arising from global warming (Brown ).…”