Increasing fire danger in the Netherlands due to climate change

Abstract

Background Temperatures and extreme weather events in Northwestern Europe are expected to increase due to climate change. As a result, longer and more intense water deficits are expected, resulting in weather conditions conducive to wildfires. Aims We assessed the impact of recent and future climate change on fire danger in the Netherlands. Methods Historical weather data and climate scenarios in combination with the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) were used to assess historical and future trends in fire danger. Key results Our analyses showed that, especially during the last decade (2011–2020), the number of days at elevated fire danger has increased. The number of days with elevated fire danger is projected to double by mid-century compared to the reference period 1981–2010 for high emission scenarios. The days at elevated fire danger during the last decade were already comparable to predictions for 2085, indicating that the climate change scenarios may underestimate future fire danger. Conclusions Days at elevated fire danger increased over the last four decades and will continue to do so under future climate scenarios. Implications The Netherlands needs to prepare for more days with weather conducive to wildfires.