Increasing risks of crop failure and water scarcity in global breadbaskets by 2030

Abstract

As the greatest water user in the world, the agricultural sector is vulnerable to changes in climate and water resource availability. Understanding the impact of these changes on crop yield is critical in order to achieve and maintain global food security. We analyze output from an ensemble of Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project models to project the probability of rice, soybean, maize, and wheat yield failures across global and national breadbaskets through mid-century. The probability of crop yield failures is projected to be as much as 4.5 times higher by 2030 and up to 25 times higher by 2050 across global breadbaskets. Crop failures are projected to be more likely when effects of CO2 fertilization are ignored. We utilize the open-source Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas to create a Water Scarcity Index composed of ten hydrological variables. The index reveals high water scarcity across crop breadbaskets in India, China, and the United States. If the ability to irrigate breadbaskets was eliminated due to water scarcity, the likelihood of crop failures would increase. Shifts in breadbaskets may cross national borders as crop yields will increase in Canada and decrease in the US as a response to a changing climate. Our analysis highlights top producing agricultural regions that have historically provided the global food system with large quantities of one or more major crops, but will face challenges in continuing to do so due to climate change and growing water scarcity.

Salinity impacts on irrigation water-scarcity in food bowl regions of the US and Australia

“…Other studies across the US have also shown that combined effects of heat and drought can further intensify water scarcity, with impacts on crop production in irrigated agriculture (Luan et al 2021). All these changes increase the risks of water scarcity and yield reductions in global irrigated areas (Caparas et al 2021).…”

“…To sustain irrigated agriculture and to buffer when water demands temporally exceeds supply, for example during droughts, proper management of agricultural water is central (Singh 2014, Caparas et al 2021. We evaluate the impacts of conjunctive groundwater use as a management strategy for water scarcity alleviation, by diluting surface water at instances where salinity levels exceed crop specific tolerance levels.…”

“…Elevated salinity levels could thus severely limit the usability of water resources for irrigation and could increase water scarcity for this sector (Assouline et al 2015, Velmurugan et al 2020. Both water scarcity impacts for crop production (Caparas et al 2021), as well as salinity impacts on water scarcity van Vliet 2018, Vliet et al 2021) have been studied separately. However, joint impacts of both crop-and salinity aspects on irrigation water scarcity are largely unknown.…”

A spatial framework for prioritizing biochar application to arable land: a case study for Sweden

“…In the final step of this process, the ranked criteria are combined to provide spatial indications on where biochar should be prioritized. (Caparas et al, 2021) or excessive fertilizer use (West et al, 2014). Biochar, with its diverse positive effects, can support agronomy by countering many such challenges (Lehmann et al, 2021).…”

The Negative Bidirectional Interaction Between Climate Change and the Prevalence and Care of Liver Disease: A Joint BSG, BASL, EASL, and AASLD Commentary

“…Global warming results in food insecurity (due to foundering agriculture and infrastructure) that contributes appreciably to the development of obesity 13 ; in this context, crop yield failure across global food providers is projected to rise up to 25 times by 2050. 14 Even now, food insecurity is a contributor to the development of obesity by virtue of reliance on unhealthy energy intake, including refined (ie, highly processed) foodstuffs. 15 Whereas obesity and its metabolic consequences due to unhealthy diets can lead to NAFLD, poverty and food insecurity may also lead to malnutrition.…”