Indicators of Technical Analysis on the Basis of Moving Averages as Prognostic Methods in the Food Industry

Abstract

Competitiveness is an important factor in a company's ability to achieve success, and proper forecasting can be a fundamental source of competitive advantage for an enterprise. The aim of this study is to show the possibility of using technical analysis indicators in forecasting prices in the food industry in comparison with classical methods, namely exponential smoothing. In the food industry, competitiveness is also a key element of business. Competitiveness, however, requires not only a thorough historical analysis not only of but also forecasting. Forecasting methods are very complex and are often prevented from wider application to increase competitiveness. The indicators of technical analysis meet the criteria of simplicity and can therefore be a good way to increase competitiveness through proper forecasting. In this manuscript, the use of simple forecasting tools is confirmed for the period of 2009-2018. The analysis was completed using data on the main raw materials of the food industry, namely wheat food, wheat forage, malting barley, milk, apples and potatoes, for which monthly data from January 2009 to February 2018 was collected. The data file has been analyzed and modified, with an analysis of indicators based on rolling averages selected. The indicators were compared using exponential smoothing forecasting. Accuracy RMSE and MAPE criteria were selected. The results show that, while the use of indicators as a default setting is inappropriate in business economics, their accuracy is not as strong as the accuracy provided by exponential smoothing. In the following section, the models were optimized. With these optimized parameters, technical indicators seem to be an appropriate tool.

An Index Analysis for the Assessment of the Competitiveness of Food Products in Ukraine

“…It should be noted that the works of many scientists and economists have been dedicated to studies of competitiveness of national food products within world markets (Аndriychuk, 1990;Chaudhary, 2016;Danylyshyn, 2008, Dejneko et al, 2007, Dolishniy et al, 2006Granabetter, 2016;Hubenko, 2003;Kohls & Uhl, 1990;Kolkova, 2018;Кyrylyuk, 2009;Маyovecj, 2006;Маjstro, 2005;Paskhaver, 2001;Sabluk et al, 2008;Scott & Vollrath, 1992;Suchanek & Kralova, 2018). Owing to their efforts, theoretical and methodological foundations for the study of this problem there have been established, and a number of methodological and applied problems pertaining to the formation of competitive agri-food market along with improvement of the economic mechanism of its functioning have been resolved.…”

The Application of Forecasting Sales of Services to Increase Business Competitiveness

“…Nowadays, forecasting efforts are focused on a whole range of business variables, with Marček (2016) defining a number of areas the forecasts of business variables applied. Sales forecasts have been addressed in several publications, with retail sales addressed by Alon & Sadowski (2001), Chu & Zhang (2003), Pereira et al (2016), Kolková (2018).…”

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“…The professional management of a mutual fund carried out by professional management gives the necessary transparency and a certain guarantee that the fund will meet predetermined investment objectives (Cici et al, 2018;Klučnikov, 2016;Simo et al, 2016;Gavurová et al, 2017;Kolkova , 2018;Korauš et al, 2017;Teresienė, 2018). The Fund's objectives are set out in its Statute, which contains information on the particular fund and profile of the investment company.…”