Indirect Methods to Estimate Prevalence

Hickman, Matthew; Taylor, Colin

doi:10.1007/0-387-24416-6_8

Cited by 24 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…To address this, prevalence estimates based on statistical models are also collected. Common approaches include: simple multiplier methods; capturerecapture methods; and extrapolation via multivariate indicator methods [8].…”

Section: Data On Drug Usementioning

confidence: 99%

The drug situation in Europe: an overview of data available on illicit drugs and new psychoactive substances from European monitoring in 2015

et al. 2015

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Aim A central task for the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) is to produce an annual report of the latest data available on drug demand and drug supply in Europe. This paper is intended to facilitate a better understanding of, and easier access to, the main quantitative European level data sets available in 2015.Methods The European reporting system formally covers all 28 European Union (EU) Member States, Norway and Turkey and incorporates multiple indicators alongside an early warning system (EWS) on uncontrolled new psychoactive substances (NPS). While epidemiological information is based largely on registries, surveys and other routine data reported annually, the EWS collects case-based data on an ongoing basis. The 2015 reporting exercise is centred primarily on a set of standardized reporting tools. Results The most recent data provided by European countries are presented, including data on drug use, drug-related morbidity and mortality, treatment demand, drug markets and new psychoactive substances, with data tables provided and methodological information. A number of key results are highlighted for illustrative purposes. Drug prevalence estimates from national surveys since 2012 (last year prevalence of use among the 15-34 age band) range from 0.4% in Turkey to 22.1% in France for cannabis, from 0.2% in Greece and Romania to 4.2% in the United Kingdom for cocaine, from 0.1% in Italy and Turkey to 3% in the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom for ecstasy, and from 0.1% or less in Romania, Italy and Portugal to 2.5% in Estonia for amphetamine. Declining trends in new HIV detections among people who inject drugs are illustrated, in addition to presentation of a breakdown of NPS reported to the EU early warning system, which have risen exponentially from fewer than 20 a year between 2005 and 2008, to 101 reported in 2014. Conclusions Structured information is now available on patterns and trends in drug consumption in Europe, which permits triangulation of data from different sources and consideration of methodological limitations. Opioid drugs continue to place a burden on the drug treatment system, although both new heroin entrants and injecting show declines. More than 450 new psychoactive substances are now monitored by the European early warning system with 31 new synthetic cathinones and 30 new synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists notified in 2014.

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Section: Data On Drug Usementioning

confidence: 99%

The drug situation in Europe: an overview of data available on illicit drugs and new psychoactive substances from European monitoring in 2015

et al. 2015

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“…Heroin problems occurred most recently in some of the new Member States and heroin users still account for a large proportion of the health and social costs resulting from illicit drug use in Europe. Estimating the number of heroin users is methodologically complex [6], but from the data available an average prevalence estimate for the adult population (15-64 years) of between four and five cases of problem opiate use per 1,000 can be derived. The data suggest that the overall trend in prevalence is relatively stable: treatment services are seeing less new heroin problems and in general are treat ing an ageing population, suggesting new recruitment rates are down.…”

Section: Trends In the Drug Situation In Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring trends in illicit drug use in Europe: an overview of the work of the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA)

Griffiths

Lopez

Götz

2008

psychiatr. psychother.

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beobachtung neuer entwicklungen im bereich des illegalen Substanzkonsums in europa: ein Überblick der arbeit der europäischen beobachtungsstelle für Drogen und Drogensucht (ebDD) Zusammenfassung: Seit mehr als 10 Jahren arbeitet die EBDD an der Entwicklung eines Beobachtungssystems für Substanzkonsum in Europa. Dieser Artikel beschreibt die Methode der Datenerhebung und Datendokumentation, und positioniert diese im allgemeinen Kontext der Entwicklungen im Rahmen der europäischen Integration. Das europäische Datenerhebungssystem wird anhand eines Überblicks der gesammelten Daten und der daraus folgenden Aussagen bezüglich illegalen Substanzkonsums in Europa dargestellt. Methodik: Die EBDD ist eine dezentralisierte fachliche Einrichtung der Europäischen Union. Ihre Aufgabe besteht darin, zuverlässige und vergleichbare Daten bzw. Informationen über Substanzkonsum in Europa zur Verfügung zu stellen. Es wird über die epidemiologische Situation in Europa, Interventionen und Maßnahmen in der Drogenpolitik sowie Reaktionen berichtet. Die Einrichtung arbeitet eng mit nationalen Stellen in allen Mitgliedsstaaten zusammen, um standardisierte bzw. vergleichbare Messinstrumente, Methoden und Formen der Berichterstattung zu entwickeln. Zu den am besten ausgearbeiteten Methoden zählen die fünf epidemiologischen Hauptindikatoren. Diskussion: Die Datenverfügbarkeit in Europa ist seit Mitte der 1990er-Jahre stark angestiegen; somit ist es heutzutage möglich, sich einen Überblick über aktuelle Entwicklungen zu verschaffen, einschließlich aller Stärken und Schwächen der Informationsgrundlagen. Dadurch stehen wertvolle Informationen zur Verfügung, mit deren Hilfe Handlungen auf europäischem Niveau beurteilt werden können und eine Diskussion unter den Mitgliedsstaaten durch eine "gemeinsame Sprache", um die Suchtund Drogenproblematik zu beschreiben, erleichtert wird. Das Berichterstattungssystem hat auch als Katalysator gewirkt, indem es nationale Datenerhebungs-Aktivitäten sowie die Entwicklung neuer Methoden angekurbelt hat.Summary: For more than 10 years, the EMCDDA has been working to develop a drug monitoring system for Europe. Here, we describe the approach taken to collect and report on data-use issues, placing it within the general context of developments in European integration. The extent to which the European data collection system has developed is explored by presenting an overview of what they reveal about current trends in illicit drug use in Europe. Methodological approach:The EMCDDA is a decentralised technical agency of the European Union. The role of the Centre is to provide sound and reliable information on drugs. Reporting covers: the epidemiological situation; responses; and drug strategies and policies. The Centre works closely with national focal points located in all participating countries to develop standard and comparable measures, methods and reporting tools. Among the most established of these are the five key epidemiological indicators.Discussion: Data availability has increased considerably in Europe sin...

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“…However, these methods are inefficient under some conditions such as measuring the prevalence of rare, more covert and stigmatized circumstances, and there are multiple opportunities for bias in such situations (8). Therefore, numbers of indirect methods such as multiplier and capture-recapture methods were developed to estimate the size of hidden populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, numbers of indirect methods such as multiplier and capture-recapture methods were developed to estimate the size of hidden populations. The indirect estimation methods were employed to estimate the prevalence of FSWs by analyzing the observed data set, or combining it with other information to estimate the total target population sampled within the observed data set (8,9).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%