Inflammatory profiles are associated with long COVID up to 6 months after COVID-19 onset: A prospective cohort study of individuals with mild to critical COVID-19

Abstract

Background After initial COVID-19, immune dysregulation may persist and drive post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC). We described longitudinal trajectories of cytokines in adults up to 6 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection and explored early predictors of PASC. Methods RECoVERED is a prospective cohort of individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between May 2020 and June 2021 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Serum was collected at weeks 4, 12 and 24 of follow-up. Monthly symptom questionnaires were completed from month 2 after COVID-19 onset onwards; lung diffusion capacity (DLCO) was tested at 6 months. Cytokine concentrations were analysed by human magnetic Luminex screening assay. We used a linear mixed-effects model to study log-concentrations of cytokines over time, assessing their association with socio-demographic and clinical characteristics that were included in the model as fixed effects. Results 186/349 (53%) participants had ≥2 serum samples and were included in current analyses. Of these, 101/186 (54%: 45/101[45%] female, median age 55 years [IQR = 45–64]) reported PASC at 12 and 24 weeks after COVID-19 onset. We included 37 reference samples (17/37[46%] female, median age 49 years [IQR = 40–56]). In a multivariate model, PASC was associated with raised CRP and abnormal diffusion capacity with raised IL10, IL17, IL6, IP10 and TNFα at 24 weeks. Early (0–4 week) IL-1β and BMI at COVID-19 onset were predictive of PASC at 24 weeks. Conclusions Our findings indicate that immune dysregulation plays an important role in PASC pathogenesis, especially among individuals with reduced pulmonary function. Early IL-1β shows promise as a predictor of PASC.