Influence Mechanism Analysis of the Spatial Evolution of Inter-Provincial Population Flow in China Based on Epidemic Prevention and Control

Abstract

Based on big data on migration from the Baidu Map platform, this paper divides China’s epidemic prevention and control efforts into four stages. Then, the characteristics and spatial patterns of daily population flows are studied by social network analysis. Subsequently, the exponential random graph model is used to investigate the influence of dynamic characteristics of changes in the spatial structure of the interprovincial population flow network during the postepidemic period. The spatial structure of the population flow network before, during, and after the epidemic shows significantly different characteristics, with epidemic prevention and control measures playing a significant role in restricting population flows. Interprovincial population flows have a certain degree of transmissibility, but two-way flows are not obvious. In addition, for regions with a larger resident population and a higher unemployment rate, a larger population tends to flow out. For regions with higher per capita GDP, the secondary and tertiary industries account for a relatively larger proportion, and the public environment is better. The more attractive a region is to the population, the higher is the tendency towards population inflows. Moreover, the level of medical care and epidemic prevention and control have become the main influencing factors of population movement.