Influence of Ocean Current Features on the Performance of Machine Learning and Dynamic Tracking Methods in Predicting Marine Drifter Trajectories

Abstract

Accurately and rapidly predicting marine drifter trajectories under conditions of information scarcity is critical for addressing maritime emergencies and conducting marine surveys with resource-limited unmanned vessels. Machine learning-based tracking methods, such as Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), offer a promising approach for trajectory prediction in such scenarios. This study combines satellite observations and idealized simulations to compare the predictive performance of LSTM with a resource-dependent dynamic tracking method (DT). The results indicate that when driven solely by historical drifter paths, LSTM achieves better trajectory predictions when trained and tested on relative trajectory intervals rather than the absolute positions of individual trajectory points. In general, LSTM provides a more accurate geometric pattern of trajectories at the initial stages of forecasting, while DT offers superior accuracy in predicting specific trajectory positions. The velocity and curvature of ocean currents jointly influence the prediction quality of both methods. In regions characterized by active sub-mesoscale dynamics, such as the fast-flowing and meandering Kuroshio Current and Kuroshio Current Extension, DT predicts more reliable trajectory patterns but lacks precision in detailed position estimates compared to LSTM. However, in areas dominated by the fast but relatively straight North Equatorial Current, the performance of the two methods reverses. The two methods also demonstrate different tolerances for noise and sampling intervals. This study establishes a baseline for selecting machine learning methods for marine drifter prediction and highlights the limitations of AI-based predictions under data-scarce and resource-constrained conditions.