Influence of population size, density, and proximity to talent clubs on the likelihood of becoming elite youth athlete

Abstract

Previous studies have found significant differences in the likelihood of becoming an elite athlete depending on community population sizes and densities, an effect known as the place of early development, or birthplace effect. However, the results have not been consistent between sports or European countries. As both professional and voluntary clubs are vital to the talent development systems in Europe, the proximity of an athlete's place of early development to the location of talent clubs may be an important predictor of the likelihood of becoming an elite athlete. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study was to investigate the place of early development effect and the effect of proximity to talent clubs. The samples included elite youth league athletes (579 football and 311 handball) and national youth athletes (85 football and 80 handball) and a comparison group of 147 221 football and 26 290 handball youth athletes. Odds ratios showed variations in the optimal community size and density across sports. Geospatial analyses of proximity to talent clubs highlighted a trend indicating that most national and elite youth league athletes in both sports had their place of early development in their sport near a talent club. The results suggest that proximity is an important predictor in the development of expertise across sports, but future studies need to clarify if proximity is important in other countries and sports.

Population density and proximity to junior developmental teams affect the development of National Hockey League draftees

“…No interaction or collinearity between the two predictor variables was seen in any provincial region in Model 3. Linear regression analyses were chosen due to the assumptions that areas with low population densities and/or short proximities to CHL teams provide more optimal environments for NHL talent development …”

“…Linear regression analyses were chosen due to the assumptions that areas with low population densities and/or short proximities to CHL teams provide more optimal environments for NHL talent development. 14 It is also important to note that population size was not added as a third predictor variable to this study because including population density (which includes population size within its value) and population size in the same regression analyses introduced multicollinearity into the model.…”

“…Consequently, this observed heterogeneity necessitates an exploration of other environmental characteristics, such as population density and proximity to local sport clubs. Although past literature has explored the influence of these particular early developmental characteristics on developing Portuguese, Danish, and Irish athletes, similar analysis — to our knowledge — remains to be conducted in Canadian elite hockey players. The necessity to explore such factors in this particular context is driven by inconsistencies in community size effects observed in Canadian hockey .…”

“…Similarly, Rossing et al explored the influence of proximity to talent clubs on producing elite Danish handball and soccer players competing in youth leagues and youth national teams. The authors found substantial geospatial variability favoring athletes who come from regions with, or close to, talent clubs in both sports.…”

The Promise of a Holistic Ecological Approach to Study Badminton Talent Development in Indonesia

“…The role of environment in athletic talent development has been considered an important factor. The proximity to talent clubs is an important predictor in the development of expertise in sports [1]. Elite football clubs facilitated a talent development environment to provide their academy players with tools and resources needed inside and outside the field [2].…”